In our fourteenth installment, we continue our journey through the history of Mets prospects, transitioning from the in-depth scouting reports of 1975 to the evolving formats of Baseball Digest's yearly March Rookie preview editions. By 1976, Baseball Digest had shifted its focus, opting for an article on promising rookies rather than detailed scouting reports for each team. Unfortunately, no Mets prospects were featured in that 1976 article.
The following year, 1977, saw another change in format. Baseball Digest provided small thumbnails highlighting each team's top prospects. For the Mets, only two players made the grade: Lee Mazzilli and Jackson Todd. In this installment, we'll delve into the careers of these two promising players and examine whether they lived up to the expectations set forth by Baseball Digest.
From Scouting Report to Stardom: Brooklyn's Lee Mazzilli’s MLB Odyssey
Scouting Report:"Expected to be Mets regular center fielder in 77. Hits for average (.292 last year) Adequate arm, excellent on defense; good speed."
The 1977 scouting report in Baseball Digest predicted Lee Mazzilli to be the Mets' regular center fielder, highlighting his ability to hit for average (.292 in 1976), adequate arm, excellent defense, and good speed. Comparing this to Mazzilli's actual career offers an interesting contrast and reflection on the trajectory of his baseball journey.
Scouting Report vs. Actual Career
Expected Performance
Position: Regular center fielder.
Batting Average: .292 in the minors.
Defense: Excellent.
Arm Strength: Adequate.
Speed: Good.
Actual Career Highlights
Teams: New York Mets, Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, Toronto Blue Jays.
MLB Debut: 1976.
Batting Average: .259 over 14 seasons.
All-Star: 1979.
Defensive Skills: Played multiple outfield positions and some first base.
Arm Strength: Considered weak by major league standards.
Analysis of Key Aspects
Center Fielder Role
The scouting report foresaw Mazzilli as the regular center fielder for the Mets in 1977. He indeed played extensively in center field, making 159 appearances in 1977. However, his defensive positioning evolved over his career, with notable time spent in other outfield positions and at first base. This shift was partly due to his weaker arm, which limited his effectiveness in center field despite his initial defensive prowess.
Batting
Mazzilli's minor league batting average of .292 was a promising indicator of his hitting potential. In his best seasons, he lived up to this promise, particularly in 1979 when he hit .303 and became an All-Star. However, his overall career average of .259 reflects periods of struggle, including a significant dip in performance in 1981 due to injuries.
Speed and Base Stealing
His speed was well-utilized, especially in the early part of his career. Mazzilli's notable achievements include setting a professional record by stealing seven bases in a single minor league game in 1975. He continued to be a threat on the bases in the majors, with 41 stolen bases in 1980 being a career highlight.
Defensive Performance
The scouting report's praise for his defensive skills was accurate in terms of his fielding ability. Mazzilli's versatility allowed him to play various outfield positions, though his throwing arm remained a concern throughout his career. This limitation influenced his transition to first base later in his career.
Career Beyond Playing
After his playing days, Mazzilli's baseball journey continued in various roles:
Manager: Baltimore Orioles (2004-2005).
Coach: New York Yankees (2000-2003, 2006).
Broadcasting: Studio analyst for Sportsnet New York.
Acting: Off-Broadway performance in Tony n' Tina's Wedding.
Summary
The 1977 scouting report in Baseball Digest accurately captured Lee Mazzilli's potential and many aspects of his early career. However, his actual career trajectory involved a broader range of roles and challenges, reflecting the unpredictable nature of professional sports. His adaptability and versatility allowed him to maintain a significant presence in baseball beyond his playing days, highlighting a successful and multifaceted career.
Curveballs and Comebacks: Jackson Todd's Baseball Career
Scouting Report: "Curveball, slider pitcher with good control (53 walks, 125 SO in 201 innings last year."
The scouting report highlighted Jackson Todd's command over his curveball and slider, as well as his excellent control, illustrated by his 53 walks and 125 strikeouts over 201 innings in a given year.
Early Years and College Highlights:
Jackson Todd was initially picked by the Chicago Cubs in the 11th round of the 1970 MLB Draft straight out of Will Rogers High School. However, he chose to play college baseball at the University of Oklahoma instead. During his tenure with the Sooners, he earned significant accolades, including second-team All-Conference as a freshman and first-team honors in his sophomore and junior years. Additionally, Todd was named a third-team All-American in both 1972 and 1973. Notably, he set a university record with 13 complete games in the 1973 season, which still stands. His standout performance in the 1972 College World Series included 14 innings pitched without an earned run. After three seasons at Oklahoma, Todd was selected by the New York Mets in the second round of the 1973 MLB Draft, choosing to forgo his senior year.
New York Mets:
Todd's journey through the Mets' minor league system was disrupted by a cancer diagnosis. His return to baseball after surgery and chemotherapy was a testament to his determination. Despite the physical challenges, Todd posted a 3.17 ERA with a 3-4 record for the Double-A Jackson Mets in 1975. In 1976, he played for the Triple-A Tidewater Tides, achieving a 13-9 record with a 2.91 ERA.
In 1977, Todd made his MLB debut, finishing the season with a 3-6 record and a 4.77 ERA over 19 appearances, including ten starts. His control, highlighted in his scouting report, was evident but inconsistent at the major league level. He struck out 47 batters while walking 33 in 77.1 innings pitched.
Toronto Blue Jays:
Todd was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies during spring training in 1978 and played for their Triple-A team, the Oklahoma City 89ers, posting a 3-4 record with a 4.61 ERA. Released by the Phillies in 1979, he signed with the Toronto Blue Jays and played for their Triple-A affiliate, the Syracuse Chiefs. He was called up to the majors in August 1979 due to an injury to a starting pitcher.
Despite a challenging first appearance, Todd made his only start of the season five days later, allowing five earned runs in seven plus innings. In 1980, Todd began the season in Syracuse but was called up in August. He posted a 3.96 ERA with a 5-2 record over twelve starts, his best season statistically. He struck out 38 batters while walking 20 in 75 innings pitched.
Later Career and Transition to Coaching:
Todd continued his career in the minors, playing for the Tucson Toros in 1983. After a break in 1984, he returned in 1985, playing for the minor league teams of the Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles but did not return to the MLB.
Todd transitioned to coaching, starting as a pitching coach for the Triple-A Denver Zephyrs and later working with the Texas Rangers organization, Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres, and eventually returning to the University of Oklahoma as a pitching coach in 1996.
Analytics and Performance Contrast
Minor League Metrics
Control: 53 walks in 201 innings (2.37 BB/9)
Strikeouts: 125 strikeouts in 201 innings (5.59 K/9)
MLB Career Metrics:
Control: 88 walks in 286.2 innings (2.8 BB/9)
Strikeouts: 138 strikeouts in 286.2 innings (4.33 K/9)
ERA: 4.40
WHIP: 1.36 (302 hits and 88 walks in 286.2 innings)
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): 4.88, indicating his ERA was somewhat supported by his defense.
Contrast Analysis:
Control: Todd’s control at the major league level was slightly worse than in his scouting report. His walk rate increased from 2.37 BB/9 in the scouting report to 2.8 BB/9 in his MLB career. This indicates he struggled somewhat with control when facing major league hitters compared to his minor league performance.
Strikeouts: His strikeout rate also decreased from 5.59 K/9 in the scouting report to 4.33 K/9 in his MLB career, showing that he had difficulty maintaining the same strikeout effectiveness against higher-caliber competition.
Effectiveness: Todd’s 4.40 ERA and 1.36 WHIP suggest that while he had decent control, he allowed too many hits, and his overall effectiveness was less than stellar. His FIP of 4.88 indicates that his ERA was somewhat aided by defensive play behind him, suggesting that his pitching was less effective than his ERA alone might indicate.
Durability and Role: Despite the promising start in the minors and flashes of potential in the majors, Todd’s career was hampered by injuries and his battle with cancer. These factors limited his durability and consistency, leading to his eventual role as a coach rather than a long-term MLB player.
Both Mazzilli and Todd were featured in the Mets Highlight film below:
In examining the careers of Lee Mazzilli and Jackson Todd, we see two paths shaped by high expectations, personal challenges, and a passion for the game. Mazzilli's career, marked by an All-Star appearance and versatile defensive roles, contrasted with the high hopes of his scouting report, ultimately reflecting a player who adapted to stay relevant in the major leagues. Todd's journey, defined by his battle with cancer and subsequent return to the mound, highlights the unpredictable nature of a baseball career. While his control and strikeout abilities didn't fully translate to MLB success, his resilience and eventual transition to coaching demonstrate his enduring impact on the sport. These stories remind us that the path from prospect to professional is rarely straightforward, often requiring perseverance and adaptability beyond initial scouting predictions.
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