Hit or Error? Baseball Digest's 1999 Rookie Edition Reexamined

Welcome to the 37th installment of Hit or Error, our weekly time-travel trip through the pages of Baseball Digest, where we revisit the hopes of spring with the hindsight of summer—served with a side of Mets melancholy and a sprinkle of “what were they thinking?”

This week, we crack open the March 1999 issue, a time when the world was preparing to party like it’s 1999 (thanks, Prince), and Baseball Digest was hyping up a fresh crop of can’t-miss stars. Names like Roy Halladay, J.D. Drew, Eric Chavez, and Lance Berkman graced the national prospect spotlight with the kind of promise that made scouts swoon and GMs sweat.

And then we flipped to the Mets page.

To our surprise, the Amazins actually got a full page, twelve (yes, twelve!) rookies profiled, which may have set some sort of Digest record. Our theory? The writer was either paid by the word, or he wandered into camp, panicked, and started listing anyone who owned a glove.

Vance Wilson and Jay Payton were back for another round—familiar faces with familiar injury histories. As for the other ten? Let’s just say the bottom half reads like a roll call from a spring training split-squad in St. Lucie. Rigo Beltrán, Scott Hunter, Mike Kinkade, Mo Bruce, Ralph Milliard, and Daniel Murray—a mix of cups of coffee and guys who probably still have their minor league jerseys in a closet somewhere next to their Blockbuster cards.

That leaves us with the final four: Octavio Dotel, Terrence Long, Grant Roberts, and Jeff Tam—not exactly the Fantastic Four, but compared to the rest of the list, they might as well be The Avengers.

So the eternal question remains:

Did Baseball Digest find a hit… or commit an error?

Let’s find out

Octavio Dotel: Power Arm, Thirteen Teams, and a Stand-Up Career

Baseball Digest Scouting Report in the March 1999 edition read :

"Has the makings of a front-line major league starter. His ability to throw the fastball in the low-to-mid 90s, in addition to his improving breaking ball, will allow him to be a successful major league pitcher."

Well, they got the “successful major league pitcher” part right. Just not quite the “front-line starter” part.

Octavio Dotel’s big-league journey began with the Mets in 1999, where he flashed electric stuff and racked up strikeouts like overdue library books. He earned a postseason win in that unforgettable 15-inning NLCS Game 5 — yes, the one that ended with Robin Ventura’s infamous “grand slam single.” For a hot second, it looked like the Mets might’ve uncovered a real gem. But then came the trade — Dotel was shipped off to Houston in the Mike Hampton deal, and from there, he began what can only be described as baseball’s version of a Greyhound bus tour.

Dotel didn’t just play in the majors, he played everywhere. Thirteen teams in fifteen seasons, second only to Edwin Jackson in the “where are they now?” sweepstakes. He started off as a starter but quickly found his niche in the bullpen. He was a setup man, a closer, a journeyman, a mentor. He was part of a combined no-hitter in 2003. He won a World Series with the Cardinals in 2011. He even helped the Dominican Republic win the World Baseball Classic in 2013.

He also racked up 109 saves, over 1,100 strikeouts, and finished with a career ERA just north of 3.70. His strikeout rate was 10.8 per nine innings which was the best ever by a right-hander with at least 900 innings pitched at the time of his retirement. In other words: the guy could deal.

But was he a front-line starter? Not for long. Not really at all. He made 34 starts in his first two seasons, and that was about it. By 2001, he was fully converted into a reliever, and from there, never looked back.

Dotel became baseball’s bullpen mercenary , the guy you called when your late innings needed saving. He probably racked up as many frequent flyer miles as innings pitched. Still, for all the stops, he made an impact, in the clubhouse, in the box score, and on the mound.

Tragically, Dotel’s story came to a sudden and heartbreaking end in April of 2025, when he was killed in a nightclub roof collapse in Santo Domingo at the age of 51. A beloved figure in the Dominican baseball community, his passing was a gut punch to those who knew him ,and to those of us who remembered the days when he first took the mound at Shea with that electric fastball and a world of promise.

So, did Baseball Digest get a hit or commit an error?

We’ll call this one a stand-up double.

No, Dotel didn’t become an ace. But he carved out a 15-year career, struck out the world, pitched in the postseason, won a World Series, and made his country proud. That’s not just a successful pitcher — that’s a legacy. Maybe not the star they envisioned… but absolutely not a swing and miss.

Terrence Long: Drafted High, Finished Somewhere in the Middle

The March 1999 Baseball Digest scouting report read"Terrence is a young, promising outfielder. Last season, he eclipsed double digits in doubles, triples, home runs, and stolen bases. He is a future right fielder at the major league level."

You know the phrase “tools for days”? Terrence Long had a whole toolbox. The power-speed combo was real — doubles, triples, dingers, and swipes all in one season? That’s usually enough to get scouts writing love letters. Baseball Digest saw the ceiling, and they weren’t wrong to think he’d crash through it.

The Mets took Long in the first round of the 1994 draft, when Forrest Gump was winning Oscars, Friends was just getting started, and the only thing less consistent than the Mets’ record was Ross and Rachel. But despite all that raw athleticism, Long never quite put it together in the Mets’ system. Inconsistent at the plate, he bounced around the minors for half a decade. When he finally got a shot with the big club in April of ’99, it lasted three hitless pinch-hit at-bats before he was optioned back to Norfolk. That’s not a cup of coffee — that’s a coffee stain.

By July, the Mets had seen enough. They packaged Long off to Oakland with another minor leaguer for Kenny Rogers (no, not the Gambler, the pitcher who famously walked in the NLCS-winning run that same season). And wouldn’t you know it ,Long found his groove in green and gold.

With the A’s, he finally delivered on some of that promise. In 2000, he hit .288 with 18 homers and 80 RBIs , enough to finish second in AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Kazuhiro Sasaki. Not bad for a guy the Mets had filed under "miss."

Long followed that up with a nearly identical 2001 campaign .283 average, 85 RBIs, and a full 162 games played. Oakland rewarded him with a four-year, $11.6 million contract extension, and for a moment, it looked like the Digest’s prediction had landed squarely in the “hit” column.

But the shine faded. In 2002, his average dipped to .240, and though he cracked a career-high 16 homers, his production tailed off. By 2003, his batting average barely budged (.245), his homers dipped (14), and his relationship with manager Ken Macha soured like leftover Gatorade in a July dugout. The A’s shipped him to San Diego that winter, and his days as a starter effectively ended.

With the Padres in 2004, he played often but slugged rarely , just three home runs in 136 games, despite a decent .295 average. Stints with Kansas City (solid but unspectacular), and then short-lived shots with the Reds and Yankees followed. By 2006, after a 12-game cameo in pinstripes and a .167 average, his major league career was done.

So, did Baseball Digest get a hit or commit an error?

This one’s a sharp single, a stolen base, and then stranded in scoring position.

Yes, Terrence Long made it. Yes, he had back-to-back solid seasons and played a full 162 twice , something plenty of more-hyped prospects never sniff. But the stardom Digest hinted at never quite materialized. He was a decent big leaguer, not a star, not a bust, just somewhere in that gray middle zone of “almost.” For Mets fans? Watching him bloom elsewhere was just another reminder that sometimes the prospects you give up are the ones that figure it out... just not in Flushing.

Series champ.

High Hopes, Higher ERA: Grant Roberts Career Flames Out

The March 1999 Baseball Digest scouting report read "Grant is an impressive right-hander who shows flashes of brilliance. If he can harness his ability, he has the makeup and stuff to become a major league starter someday."

Ah yes, “flashes of brilliance” — baseball’s version of “it’s not you, it’s your mechanics.”

Grant Roberts had all the early ingredients: a live arm, a devastating changeup, and just enough promise to make Mets fans dream of the next Ron Darling (or at least the next Bobby Jones). A standout in the lower minors, Roberts once earned “Most Outstanding Pitcher” honors in the South Atlantic League and looked like a late-round steal from the 1995 draft.

But by the time Baseball Digest issued this scouting report in 1999, the warning signs were already flickering like an old Shea Stadium scoreboard. Elbow issues derailed his ‘98 season and left his minor league numbers trending in the wrong direction. Still, in July 2000 with the Mets pushing for the playoffs , Roberts got the call.

It did not go well.

In his one and only big-league start, Roberts got shelled by the Expos and was yanked before he could finish two innings. Not exactly the stuff of legends. Still, he showed enough out of the bullpen later that season to stay on the radar. In 2001 and 2002, Roberts bounced between Triple-A and Queens, and by early ’02, he finally looked like he might deliver on that “brilliance” line: he opened the season with a scoreless streak and briefly had the lowest ERA in the league. For about five weeks, he was untouchable.

Then came the shoulder issues ,and they never really left.

Injuries would become the defining storyline of Roberts’ career. Rotator cuff problems, tendinitis, and more trips to the disabled list than strikeouts ,and we still haven’t even gotten to the off-field drama yet.

In late 2002, a tabloid-fueled scandal broke when a photo surfaced of Roberts allegedly smoking marijuana. Roberts claimed it was leaked by a disgruntled ex-girlfriend trying to extort him, and no legal action was taken. But the damage, at least reputationally was done.

The next two seasons were more of the same: shoulder trouble, rehab setbacks, the Mets gave him a crack at starting in 2004 , it went about as well as Dennis Miller in the Monday Night Football booth. At one point in 2004, he was literally prepped for surgery on the table when the Mets designated him for assignment. Only in Flushing does the front office beat the surgeon to the table.

He had the procedure after all, missed the rest of the season, and re-signed on a minor-league deal. By 2005, his Mets days were over, and his baseball career was fading fast. A few weeks after his release, Roberts became the only former major leaguer suspended in a wave of minor league PED violations. Fifteen days for a first offense , a short suspension, but one more punch to a career already on the ropes. The Yankees took a flyer on him later that summer, but he never made it back to the bigs.

So, did Baseball Digest get a hit or commit an error?

This one’s a broken-bat blooper that never left the infield.

The raw talent was real ,so was the potential. But injuries, inconsistency, and, let’s be honest, some self-inflicted wounds kept Grant Roberts from ever becoming that major league starter Digest envisioned. He had the stuff… he just never got to harness it for long enough. A flash here, a flicker there, but ultimately more promise than payoff.

Jeff Tam: Steady, Unspectacular, and Exactly What Baseball Digest Predicted

The March 1999 Baseball Digest scouting report on Jeff Tam read "A reliever with a bulldog attitude, he goes right at hitters and flourishes in tough situations. Jeff is a potential middle reliever at the Major League level for the 1999 season."

I’ll give Baseball Digest credit: they weren’t swinging for the fences with Jeff Tam. No talk of future stardom, no wild ceiling projections, just a nod to a guy who might, might, chew up a few middle innings without chewing up your staff ERA in the process.

And that’s pretty much what Tam did.

Signed by the Mets as an undrafted free agent out of Florida State in 1993, Tam didn’t get his first taste of big-league action until 1998 , and didn’t hang around long. He’d bounce from the Mets to the Indians, but it wasn’t until he landed in Oakland that Tam found his footing. In 2000, he posted a 2.63 ERA over 72 appearances, becoming a trusted setup man on an A’s club that made the postseason and launched a thousand Moneyball articles.

He’d go on to pitch three solid years in the A’s bullpen, then finish his major league career with the Blue Jays in 2003. In total: six seasons, 251 games, 3.91 ERA, seven saves, a resume that basically says, "Hey, you picked me on your fantasy team once, don’t pretend you didn’t."

Tam never reached the highs of a closer or the headlines of a prospect, but for a few years he did what the scouting report predicted , attacked hitters, held his own in pressure spots, and handled middle innings like a pro.

Of course, his career came with one asterisk that even the best ERA can’t smooth over: Tam was a replacement player during the 1994 strike. That decision cost him MLBPA membership for life , a wrinkle that’s followed him longer than his time in the majors did.

After his playing days, Tam stayed in the game, coaching at the college level and even throwing a few more innings in independent ball. You’ve got to respect the love of the craft.

So, did Baseball Digest get a hit or commit an error?

This one’s a clean infield single.

They called him a potential middle reliever, and that’s exactly what he was. Tam didn’t change the game, but he showed up, did the job, and gave fans in Oakland three dependable seasons to remember. Not every scouting report has to dream big ,sometimes it’s more important to just to be right.

So what’s the final scorecard on Baseball Digest’s 1999 Mets rookie preview? Like most prospect lists, it’s a mixed bag a little shine, a little stumble, and a whole lot of what-ifs. Octavio Dotel showed flashes of frontline talent but became a journeyman with a tragic end. Terrance Long gave us moments to cheer but never quite became the star the scouting reports promised. Grant Roberts flashed brilliance until injuries turned his career into a painful question mark. And Jeff Tam? Well, he was exactly what they said , a bulldog middle reliever who did his job without much fuss.

In the end, the Mets’ 1999 rookie crop was less “can’t-miss” and more “did-miss,” but every player carried the hope of something bigger, the same hope that keeps Mets fans glued to spring training every year — ready to cheer the next prospect who might just make that hit.