How Mets Handle ADS Could Determine Short-Term Future

The Mets off season could be defined by ADS.

That’s not a syndrome but an acronym for Alonso, Diaz and Skubal.

Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz and Tarik Skubal are the prominent names that will be tied to the Mets this off season.

Alonso and Diaz have opted out of their current deals, and the Mets are in the market for an ace pitcher. With free agency looming for Skubal after next season, he and the Tigers are reportedly far apart in any negotiations for a new contract. The Mets are being perceived as a potential trade partner to acquire the likely two-time American League’s Cy Young Award winner.

Sounds great, but there are a number of obstacles to be cleared if this is to become a reality.

Before the Mets can think about acquiring Skubal, there’s the matter of whether or not they will sign Alonso or Diaz or both.

The Mets cannot afford to let Alonso twist in the wind as they did last off season because his market will be more lucrative this time around.

Alonso has more leverage this off season because he doesn’t have the qualifying offer hanging over his head. Teams were hesitant to sign him last off season for fear of losing a coveted draft pick so there was a limited market for a right-handed power hitter who was turning 30 years old for the 2025 season.

Mets President David Stearns has indicated a desire to improve run prevention. Well, what about run production. You also need that to win games.

You can bet that Alonso’s agent, Scott Boras, will point to Alonso’s ability to hit in the clutch. With runners in scoring position, Alonso posted a slash line of .309/.401/.634 with an OPS of 1.035 while he batted .370 in “high leverage” situations last season.

Alonso, who will be 31 next season, is reportedly seeking a seven-year deal and there are potential suitors out there, including the Red Sox and the Padres.

Imagine Alonso in the Red Sox lineup with the “green monster” lurking for 81 games.

Last season, the Padres were third from the bottom of the National League in home runs. Luis Arraez, a terrific contact hitter with barely any power and not exactly a gold glover himself, was their first baseman last season. You think Alonso would be a big improvement at that position as they attempt to compete with the two-time defending World Champion Dodgers.

Speaking of run prevention, Alonso’s defense has come into question, thanks in part to those ridiculous defensive metrics. Alonso is not a gold glover, and his throws are his kryptonite, but he’s saved Francisco Lindor and the other infielders numerous times from throwing errors thanks to an outstanding ability to scoop and secure those bad throws.

Alonso’s problem with his throws is partly mental. It’s tough to block out because he hears so much about it, but it’s also his footwork that needs to and can be corrected. The Mets have a source they can tap into who sits up in the broadcast booth. Keith Hernandez is considered one of the best fielding first baseman of all time. Hernandez could help Alonso with his footwork. Why the Mets don’t implore him to work with Alonso is beyond me.

If the Mets want Alonso to start putting in some time at DH, they need to be honest with him about that. Alonso is a team player and could be persuaded to go that route on a limited basis in exchange for a reasonable long-term deal.

The Mets would need to employ a capable back up for those days when Alonso would DH but, as Hernandez stated last week, "You're not gonna replace his (Alonso) bat, his power bat."

Edwin Diaz was the best closer in baseball last season, so he elected to opt out of his deal that had two years remaining at $18.5 million per with a team option for $20.4 million and a $1 million buyout in 2028.

Diaz will be 32 years old when the 2026 season begins. The Mets will make a qualifying offer that would be a little over $22 million dollars. It’s expected that Diaz will turn that down, but he’ll be facing the same hurdle that Alonso dealt with last off season, meaning a team that signs him would have to forfeit a draft pick.

Excluding 2023 when he was lost for the season with a knee injury, Diaz has been a very consistent performer. The past three seasons that he did pitch; Diaz has tossed 182 innings with a 2.10 ERA and 80 saves in 93 save opportunities.

How far the Mets will go to retain Diaz remains to be seen. If he does leave, what would be the alternative. Signing a free agent? There’s no one out there that would knock your socks off. Maybe using one of their young arms to adapt to the role? That would be risky for a team that’s trying to win now.

There's a belief that closers are a "dime a dozen," but closers the quality of Diaz do not grow on trees.

Skubal is a proven commodity, and the Tigers really have to weigh the option of trading him for a package of unproven commodities. Led by Skubal, the Tigers have reinvigorated their fan base with a fairly young team that has been to the playoffs the past two seasons. Detroit was so close having lost both times in game five of the ALDS, including a 15-inning classic this past season.

Another dilemma is the threat of a lockout following next season. The whole landscape of Major League Baseball could change with the implement of a hard salary cap. That’s a factor also affecting the Mets, who have all this money invested in Juan Soto and would have to ante up with a new contract for Skubal in any deal.

Former Mets GM and MLB Network Analyst Steve Phillips proposed a deal that would bring Tarik Skubal to Queens.

According to Phillips’ proposed trade, the Mets would get Skubal in exchange for right-handed pitchers Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat, and infielders Brett Baty and Luisangel Acuna.

I don’t think that’s a deal that would get it done for the Mets.

Sproat is a nice arm, but Detroit would likely have more of a desire for Nolan McLean, while Tong’s fastball was not as advertised and will need to develop another pitch to be a consistent Major League pitcher.

The Tigers may have a need for a second baseman because Gleyber Torres is a free agent. Baty is better at third than second because he’s not that adept at turning the double play while Acuna has not proven he can be a consistent big-league hitter.

Detroit would want much more, not to mention some different components if they intend to deal someone who has a chance to win his second consecutive American League Cy Young Award and is considered by many the best pitcher in the game.

Any package would have to start with Nolan McLean but would probably have to include a couple more of the Mets top prospects including Jett Williams and Carson Benge, to name a few.

The Mets have other issues including center field and bullpen depth, but how they handle ADS could determine if they will be able to field a World Series contender next season.