The Tyler Rogers Trade Is Not, In Fact, An Overpay

The New York Mets made another deadline move for a reliever and it made the fans on Twitter lose their minds. The acquisition of righty Tyler Rogers gives the Mets a potentially elite bridge to Edwin Diaz as the submarining reliever has a 1.80 ERA this season. The price to land Rogers, who is a free agent at the end of the year, seems quite exorbitant at first glance.

Butto has been a contributor in the big league bullpen since 2023 while Tidwell made his big league debut earlier this season. Gilbert had been tearing the cover off the ball at AAA Syracuse this month and is most well known to Mets' fans as being one of the two prospects that Steve Cohen essentially bought from the Houston Astros in 2023's Justin Verlander trade.

Blade Tidwell is on his way to San Francisco as part of the Tyler Rogers trade.

While Tidwell was recently rated as the Mets' 10th-best prospect according to MLB.com and Gilbert is 12th on the same list, neither falls into the tier of untouchable prospects we broke down on Monday. Tidwell was a recent high draft pick, but he was not picked by David Stearns, rather being one of Billy Eppler's choices.

Tidwell has some intriguing stuff but difficulty commanding it, making relief pitching his most likely home as a big leaguer. The Mets also have a very full depth chart for starting pitching options heading into next season, with all of the following presumably checking in ahead of Tidwell if he stayed in the organization:

1. Sean Manaea

2. Kodai Senga

3. David Peterson

4. Clay Holmes

5. Frankie Montas (Assuming He Opts Into His Second Year)

6. Tylor Megill

7. Christian Scott

8. Nolan McLean

9. Jonah Tong

10. Brandon Sproat

With all of those guys ahead of Tidwell, and a few fast charging prospects behind him in Nate Dohm and Jonathan Santucci, he was expendable. The case of Gilbert is more interesting since the Mets had plenty of opportunities to bring him up to the majors once Jose Siri went down and bypassed him every time.

With Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo locked into the corner outfield spots through 2030, center field is the only path to the bigs available for a young outfielder. Carson Benge is coming up behind Gilbert and has much higher upside, whereas Gilbert is 25 years old and has had a tough time hitting AAA pitching. Gilbert also needed to be added to the 40-man roster this winter or moved to avoid losing him for nothing in the Rule V Draft, so moving him now makes sense.

Seeing the Mets move another center fielder for a rental brings back PTSD from the Javier Baez deal that sent Pete Crow-Armstrong to Chicago, but Gilbert is not in the same stratosphere as Crow-Armstrong was as a prospect at the time of their trades. Gilbert's most likely path to the bigs is as a fourth outfielder, and those are easier to find than elite relievers who can get big outs in a pennant race.

Butto is a homegrown arm who has the capability to work multiple innings, but he has not been consistent this season and is out of minor league options. If Stearns does acquire multiple big league relievers, Butto was a candidate to be waived to make room for a new arm on the 40-man roster, so selling high here makes sense.

The return is Rogers, who has dominated all year for the Giants and is one of the more consistent relievers in the league. Rogers can help fill a key setup role for Edwin Diaz and didn't cost any of the Mets' truly elite prospects, giving Stearns more flexibility to get help in other areas (like center field or the rotation).

While there is significant name value attached to the names the Mets sent out, the actual prospect value the Mets gave up is very overstated. The Mets could have gotten more for Gilbert and Tidwell if they moved them two years ago, but at this point in their development cycle it is a fine return to move out spare parts for a potentially elite bullpen arm.