Two Guys Talking Mets: The Plan Takes Shape

The Mets' flurry of activity this past week has awakened our two curmudgeons from their winter hibernation and prompted them to weigh in:

John Coppinger: So we were told there was a plan, and that we needed to wait for it to take shape. Well in three days, we have a definite shape with the additions of Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr. and Freddy Peralta. 

I guess we can start chronologically with Bichette, and I’ll jump in by saying that I really like this move. Bichette was the bat that the Mets needed to make up some of the offense lost by Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso, and any signing that is a gut punch to the Phillies is exhilarating. The only thing that troubles me is that the “run prevention” mantra is going to be put to the test with Bichette not having played much third base in his life.

A.J. Carter: Actually, for me the surprise is the Robert trade, which I think creates run prevention on the offensive side. Baseball has gotten away from the three true outcomes philosophy, but Robert is a three true outcomes type of guy – and not that many walks, either. He’s going to leave Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto stranded on base a little too often for my tastes. From my perspective, the trade looks like a desperation move once David Stearns and company determined they weren’t getting Cody Bellinger. I would rather have seen them go after a Steven Kwan, who rumor says is available. And I don’t fully buy the argument that Robert’s numbers dropped because he wasn’t motivated with all those terrible players around him in Chicago. Will he go into a sulk once this Mets team hits a speed bump or once he hits a slump and the fans start booing? I may be reacting a little too harshly, but I wonder if this is the type of player you want to rely on.

John Coppinger: Well that’s the question: How much are they going to rely on Robert? Is he going to be put smack in the middle of the lineup after Lindor, Soto, and Bichette? That’s a prime position and if he can’t stay healthy, then a lot of what you’re banking on goes away. If he’s seen as a 7th spot hitter who can play defense, then he’s not going to carry a whole lot of load. It just means you’re spending $20 million on Tyrone Taylor Part Two. But the Robert trade led directly to the Jett Williams trade, as it blocked Williams at the last possible position that he could play for the Mets. He wasn’t getting shortstop, he wasn’t getting second base, and now he wasn’t getting CF. So his value for 2026 instantly became being a trade chip for a pitcher. That’s exactly what happened with Peralta and Tobias Myers coming here. Now I will say that I was higher on Jett Williams than most, so that’s my bias here. But I wonder if trading your third and fifth overall prospects for Peralta, who could leave after the season, is too big a risk. They could sign Peralta, but would Stearns do it after passing on so many other long term deals?

A.J. Carter: I’m torn by the Peralta trade, partly for the reasons you cite, but also because that while he provides top-of-the-rotation pitching and seems to take the ball every five days, he also is essentially a five-inning pitcher. One of the problems last year was getting length from the starters. Should he and Myers be thought of as an entry – Peralta goes the first five and Myers the last four? I know I’m dating myself, but this hearkens back to he early 1960s when Whitey Ford was the Yankees ace, and the joke was that he only pitched the first six innings and Luis Arroyo finished up for him every time. The Mets will be going to the bullpen earlier than I think they would like to when Peralta pitches, and we saw what happened last year when the bullpen was overtaxed.

And I agree with you, to a large extent Peralta seems like a rental, albeit a season-long one. Stearns seems loath to offer pitchers long-term contracts, not without reason, so I wonder where this will put the Mets as they head into 2027. I don’t buy that they are holding out for Tarik Skubal. The odds are just as great that they won’t want to meet Skubal’s expected demand for a seven- or eight-year contract. So they could be left with nothing at season’s end.

I’m interested in seeing which team signs Framber Valdez. He averages an inning more a start than Peralta. If he inks a six- or seven-year deal, I understand why Stearns walked away. But if he signs for three years with someone else, I will be very disappointed.

John Coppinger: When Valdez intentionally crossed up his catcher last season, the first thing I thought was “he just cost himself a few million.” Well what he wound up costing himself was a few years on the contract. Valdez should have been a guy that everyone would fall all over themselves to acquire. He should have set the market. Extensive postseason experience (including the 2022 World Series in which he should have won the MVP) . A career ERA under 3.50, and durability. But that incident, along with being on the wrong side of 30, isn’t going to help him. But still, he should be a guy the Mets consider to form a 1-2-3 combo at the top of the rotation with Peralta and Nolan McLean.  The Mets shuffling their team around to play for the current rather than the future should ensure that they take a chance on Valdez.

Is there another piece besides Valdez that you would consider to be the cherry on top of the sundae for this offseason?

A.J. Carter:  That’s just it. I think that trading for Peralta means they are giving up on Valdez. So they have a rotation of Peralta, McLean, David Peterson, Clay Holmes and Sean Manaea, with Kodai Senga as a wild card. That’s serviceable, if not quite as impressive as the Evil Empire from the Chavez Ravine, especially if Jonah Tong continues to develop at Syracuse and is worthy of a mid-season callup. And I think the bullpen should be solid if Devin Williams returns to his 2024 form (as he seemed to be doing at the end of 2025) and Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley, Luis Garcia and Myers perform as expected and A.J. Minter returns at some point.

To get back to where you started this discussion, I also like the Bichette signing. He checks all the right boxes. And I’m not overly concerned about his transition to third base. While there are some questions about his arm strength, overall he can’t be any worse than Mark Vientos. On the negative side, the move does conjure up memories of Jim Fregosi’s comment when the Mets traded Nolan Ryan for him and said they were moving him from short to third. When asked about this transition, and he said, “If the AstroTurf in Shea Stadium is fast enough and I can throw on one hop, I may be able to get the ball across the infield." When told the Mets’ infield was natural grass, he said, “Then I’m in trouble.” And we know how that deal worked out.

But, hey, are the Mets better off today than they were a week ago? Yes. Is the jury still out on whether David Stearns made the right moves? Yes to that too. I think he lost his wundkerkind status after the awful trades he made at the deadline last July. But at least I am more excited about following this team on a daily basis than I was when the calendar year started, and I am looking forward to spring training.

John Coppinger: Agreed with all of that. If Stearns hadn’t botched the Diaz negotiations or let Alonso go via free agency, there would be a lot more “In Stearns We Trust” sentiments. But now? I think there’s a lot of thoughts that read:  “I don’t know about this but I hope it works,” more or less. I’m in that camp. Losing Diaz and Alonso was tough. Signing Bichette was a good bounce back. The rest? It’s all part of Stearns’ plan in which we really have no idea how it works out. But between the heavy turnover of the roster and the loss of some pre-Stearns prospects, there’s a lot of pressure on Stearns to make sure this team succeeds. It very well might. But if it doesn’t, I think the perception of Steams will take a sharp downturn. As always, time will tell.