Defense, Contracts, and the Bigger Picture: Nimmo Out, Semien In

I’ve had the privilege of covering Brandon Nimmo for his entire Mets career, and let me tell you, the guy has been more gracious with his time than any ballplayer has a right to be. On-field interviews, appearances on my radio show, random chats in the dugout—Brandon always showed up with that trademark smile that made you wonder if he knew something wonderful about the world that the rest of us Mets fans didn’t. And it’s not just me; he’s exactly the kind of player an organization dreams of representing them, the sort who thanks the media, signs every kid’s ball, and somehow makes sprinting to first on a walk seem like a civic virtue. Which is why this trade feels like a gut punch to Mets Nation. Still, I’m reserving final judgment until we see the entire plan unfold, because it’s pretty obvious this move is just the first domino. Even if the Mets hand Carson Benge the keys to center field, they now very clearly need a left fielder. Is that Cody Bellinger? Is it Kyle Tucker? And if that happens—well, yes, we’ll all miss Brandon, but Mets fans are also a forgiving bunch when you sprinkle a little Bellinger or Tucker into the lineup. So for now, we exhale, we wince, and we wait to see what this bigger plan actually looks like.

But sentimental attachment only gets us so far, and eventually we have to take off the orange-and-blue glasses and look at this thing the way a front office does through the unromantic lens of money, aging curves, and cold, hard performance trends. Branch Rickey famously said, “It is better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late,” and while that quote stings a little right now, it’s clearly a philosophy that has echoed through this decision. So before we decide whether this move is inspired, misguided, or residing in that familiar Metsian middle ground, we need to break down what this deal actually means on paper. That brings us to the financials and the on-field projections—the part of the conversation where feelings step aside, numbers take the wheel, and the real shape of this trade starts to come into focus.

PART 1 — FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Marcus Semien is currently on a seven-year, $175 million contract covering 2022–2028, carrying an average annual value of $25 million and a 2026 salary of $26 million. He has three years remaining on the deal, which correspond to his age-35 through age-38 seasons. Brandon Nimmo, meanwhile, is signed for eight years and $162 million from 2023–2030, with an AAV of $20.25 million and a 2026 payroll figure of $20.5 million. He has five years remaining, covering his age-32 through age-37 seasons. From the Mets’ perspective, swapping Nimmo for Semien would increase their 2026 payroll commitment from $20.5 million to $26 million—a $5.5 million jump for the upcoming season. In the long term, the Mets would shed the final two years of Nimmo’s deal while taking on only the three remaining years of Semien’s contract. This reduces the overall duration of financial commitment but raises the AAV for the remaining seasons.

The financial summary is straightforward: the Mets would pay more in the short term while reducing the length of the long-term obligation. The trade essentially exchanges Nimmo’s age-36 and age-37 seasons for Semien’s age-35 to age-38 seasons at a higher annual cost. Historically, second basemen experience sharper performance declines than high-OBP corner outfielders, but Semien is a notable outlier—hyper-durable, exceptionally well-conditioned, and famous for playing 162 games without faltering. Even so, the overall risk profile leans toward the Mets absorbing both higher short-term payroll and greater performance uncertainty.

PART 2 — STATISTICAL TREND ANALYSIS

Marcus Semien’s biggest strength remains his durability. He has logged six seasons with 159 or more games played, including three full 162-game seasons, played in 127 last season and has only missed significant time in 2017 and the shortened 2020 season. That availability is a premium trait at a defensively demanding position. His peak offensive seasons—2019 (8.4 WAR), 2021 (7.1 WAR), and 2023 (7.7 WAR)—were elite, bordering on MVP-caliber production. However, the downward trend since 2023 is unmistakable. His OPS+ has slid from 126 in 2023 to 103 in 2024 and 97 in 2025. His slugging percentage has fallen from .478 to .391 to .364 during that span, a roughly 25% decline in power production across two seasons. His on-base percentage shows a gentler decline (.348 to .308 to .305), indicating that plate discipline has not collapsed—but the quality of contact clearly has. Coupled with typical aging patterns for second basemen, which often include loss of bat speed, increased defensive wear, and shrinking range, Semien’s profile already shows signs of diminished home-run power, reduced hard-hit rates, and increasingly negative range metrics. While he remains a durable, above-average player and a solid defender, he is no longer a great player, and his declining bat combined with a rising AAV makes the risk substantial.

Brandon Nimmo, on the other hand, remains defined by his on-base skill, even as it has slipped from elite levels. His OBP has moved from .401 in 2021 to .367, .363, .327, and finally .324 from 2022 through 2025. The drop is notable but not catastrophic, and it coincides with a lower BABIP, a more pull-heavy hitting approach, and an organizational push for increased power—all of which he has delivered. Nimmo’s power has stabilized impressively, with 24, 23, and 25 home runs over the last three full seasons. His WAR has tapered from 5.0 in 2022 to 4.0 in 2023, then down to 2.2 in 2024 and back up to 2.9 in 2025, suggesting he has leveled off as an above-average everyday player rather than the borderline star he once was. Defensively, Nimmo’s value has declined as his ability to handle center field diminished, prompting a move to left field in 2024 and continued play there in 2025. While his defensive metrics in center field dropped sharply, his performance in left has been adequate, though far less valuable. Overall, he remains a reliable hitter with on-base skills, power, and younger age relative to Semien, all attached to a lower AAV—but with diminishing defensive impact and no longer the elite OBP weapon he once was.

PART 3 — HEAD-TO-HEAD VALUE COMPARISON

Offensively, Semien is trending downward, while Nimmo has stabilized at a slightly lower level than his peak but remains the better overall hitter going forward. Defensively, Semien still grades out as a positive at second base, a position with significantly higher inherent value than left field, where Nimmo is now limited. Projecting their future WAR through the remainder of their contracts—ages 32–37 for Nimmo and 35–38 for Semien—most aging models suggest Nimmo will produce around 2.5–3 WAR per year early in the period before tapering to 1–2 WAR late, while Semien may deliver 3.5–4 WAR in the next year or two before dropping sharply as he enters his late thirties. Since Nimmo is under contract for six remaining years and Semien for four, the total projected remaining WAR favors Nimmo, roughly 12–14 WAR compared to Semien’s 8–10 WAR. This suggests Nimmo provides more long-term value at a lower AAV and with a less volatile decline trajectory.

Financially and performance-wise, the bottom line is that, when viewed in isolation, a Semien-for-Nimmo trade is a net negative for the Mets. It increases short-term payroll commitments, adds older age-curve seasons at higher risk, and sends out the player with more projected long-term WAR. Semien remains a good player but is clearly in decline from his 2019–2023 peak, while Nimmo remains a steady 3–4 WAR outfielder whose aging curve is more predictable. The Rangers would gain more long-term value from such a trade, while the Mets would gain only a short-term positional upgrade at second base at the expense of a better overall hitter.

But to really understand why Semien makes sense for the Mets, you have to zoom out and look at the strategic layer—the roster-building philosophy David Stearns has been preaching since his postseason presser. His mantra was simple: this team has to get better on the defensive side of the ball. Terry Collins once told me that average defense makes above-average pitchers look average, and he wasn’t wrong. In an era where every extra out matters and pitchers are living on the edge more than ever, clean defense isn’t a luxury—it’s a survival tool. Offense is fun, sure. We all love the three-run homer. But defense wins ballgames in ways that don’t show up on a scoreboard graphic. And that’s where the Semien conversation really sharpens. When you stack up his reliability at second base against Brett Baty’s learning curve there—and even Jeff McNeil’s solid-but-slipping metrics—you start to see the shape of a roster that desperately needs a stabilizer up the middle. Semien isn’t just a bat; he’s an innings-eater on defense, a range machine, and a tone-setter. The contrast becomes even clearer when you look at the numbers, year over year.

When you break down the defensive side, Marcus Semien is a clear stabilizer at second base. Over the past few seasons, he has consistently turned plays, posted above-average range, and maintained a strong fielding percentage, showing a reliability that can’t be overstated. In simple terms, he gets to more balls, makes fewer mistakes, and converts more potential hits into outs than most second basemen—even as he ages. Brett Baty, by contrast, is still developing at the position. His range and reaction speed are promising, but the numbers show growing pains: errors are more frequent, and double-play execution is inconsistent. He’s clearly athletic and capable of learning quickly, but he isn’t ready to carry the position the way Semien can today. Then there’s Jeff McNeil, a Mets mainstay who has been a gold-standard defender at second for years. His fielding percentage is elite, and his instinct and range allows him to cover gaps that other players’ don't get to. However, like any player in his early 30s, McNeil’s metrics suggest slight decline—his range factor and total defensive runs above average have dipped marginally, signaling that while still excellent, he may not maintain peak efficiency for the next four years. This move allows the Mets to slide Baty to his natural position at third base and, unless they plan on experimenting playing McNeil in primarly in left—which seems unlikely—he too will be moved. Strategically, it also opens opportunities for the team’s younger talent: Jett Williams and Luisangel Acuña, if not traded, can spend more time developing in the minors, while international top prospect Elian Peña can grow into a potential five-tool second baseman/shortstop. Put it all together, and Semien offers immediate, dependable defensive value at a premium position, Baty can settle into his natural spot, McNeil remains a reliable veteran or a valuable trade chip, and the organization gains flexibility to cultivate the next generation of middle infield talent.

Now for the fun part: with Brandon Nimmo and Jose "Hey" Siri both gone, the Mets suddenly face vacancies in two of their three outfield spots. Carson Benge is expected to get a good look in center field—think of him as a potential “Nimmo 2.0.” But that naturally raises the question: could the Mets be active for a bigger name in right or left field, like Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger?

Tucker, traditionally a right fielder, was once considered an elite defender—he even won a Gold Glove in 2022—but his range has declined noticeably in recent seasons. While his arm remains a weapon and he still positions himself intelligently, his defensive metrics have slipped, with negative defensive WARs and Defensive Runs Saved, signaling a drop-off from his peak. Timing and first-step explosiveness have diminished slightly, and his ability to cover ground isn’t what it used to be. Still, Tucker’s offensive power remains intact, and with some adjustments, he could potentially handle left field if the Mets needed him to.

Bellinger, on the other hand, is an entirely different profile. Defense is arguably his strongest asset, defined by remarkable versatility across all outfield positions and even first base, an elite arm, and top-tier athleticism. While he may not win a traditional Gold Glove this season due to splitting time across multiple positions, his ability to make highlight-reel plays and consistently save runs makes him highly valuable. Bellinger’s adaptability would give the Mets maximum flexibility, whether it’s left, right, or center.

Another intriguing option is Adolis García, who was recently non-tendered by the Rangers. Over his seven-year career, García has offered solid offensive production, including a career 30-home run pace and the ability to contribute in multiple facets at the plate. Defensively, he is a strong defensive presence. He has earned a reputation as an above-average outfielder with an elite arm, and in 2025, he led all right fielders in defensive runs saved with 16, while also logging the most putouts among American League right fielders. Though his offense has dipped slightly, his defensive impact remains significant, and analysts consider him a potential Gold Glove candidate. While some mechanical issues have been noted, they haven’t been enough to offset his overall value in the field.

All told, the Mets’ outfield situation is wide open. Benge could step into center, while the club could pursue a high-impact corner outfielder—Tucker for his bat with some defensive compromises, Bellinger for elite defensive versatility, or García for a more offense-driven solution. Each option comes with trade-offs, but they all give the Mets a chance to strengthen an outfield suddenly in flux.

At the end of the day, no trade happens in a vacuum. It’s easy to sit back, crunch numbers, and list pros and cons, but real baseball moves are about the bigger puzzle—how the pieces fit together to form a complete roster. So for now, let’s take a deep breath, exhale, and let the Mets unveil the opening day lineup before passing final judgment. In the meantime, we should appreciate everything Brandon Nimmo gave the organization, both on and off the field. Yes, losing him stings, but Mets fans are a forgiving bunch—especially when it’s clear the front office is thinking about the full roster picture. One of my fondest memories will always be celebrating on the field with Brandon in 2024 when the Mets beat the Phillies—a moment that captured his joy, his heart for the game, and the way he made every reporter as well as every Mets fan feel like part of something larger.

So we exhale, we wince, and then we wait. Because while numbers matter, chemistry matters, timing matters, and sometimes the beauty of baseball is simply letting the plan unfold before our eyes.