The New York Mets began the process of reshaping their starting rotation by signing free-agent pitcher Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34 million contract. This move signals a shift in approach as the team pivots from last year’s signing of Luis Severino, who was brought in to stabilize the rotation but struggled with inconsistency as the season wore on the and innings piled up.
Let’s explore the context of both signings and how Montas might address the shortcomings left by Severino.
Last Year's Gamble: Luis Severino
In the offseason prior to the 2024 campaign, the Mets, led by new president of baseball operations David Stearns, sought value in the free-agent market. Severino, a hard-throwing right-hander and former Yankee standout, became their first significant signing under Stearns’ leadership. He inked a one-year deal worth $13 million. At 29, Severino brought tantalizing upside but came with considerable risk.
Once an All-Star in 2017 and 2018, Severino had seen his career derailed by persistent injuries. Rotator cuff issues in 2019 and subsequent Tommy John surgery in 2020 were followed by various oblique and lat strains. Though he still ranked among the league's elite in fastball velocity, Severino’s 2023 season with the Yankees was marked by a 6.65 ERA across 18 starts, reflecting a pitcher struggling to regain his form.
The Mets gambled on his potential, envisioning Severino as a possible ace-like presence if healthy. In 2024, Luis Severino showcased a modest resurgence with the New York Mets, posting an 11-7 record, 1.6 WAR, and a 3.91 ERA over 31 starts. This marked a significant improvement from his challenging 2023 season, although he still exhibited some inconsistencies. Severino logged 182 innings, striking out 161 batters while walking 60. However, the long ball remained an issue, as he allowed 23 home runs, contributing to a 4.21 FIP.
Severino's contributions were particularly valuable for a Mets rotation plagued by injuries and instability. Highlights included a complete-game effort against the Cardinals in July, demonstrating flashes of the dominance that once defined his career. Despite these moments, a concerning drop in velocity and command during September raised questions about his durability moving forward.
As the Mets head into 2025, they’ve opted to seek more stability in their rotation by pivoting to Frankie Montas. This decision reflects their intention to prioritize consistency and health as they aim to reshape their pitching staff for a competitive push next season.
Frankie Montas: The Next Project
Enter Frankie Montas, a 31-year-old right-hander who has shown glimpses of dominance but carries his own baggage. The Mets’ two-year agreement with Montas is worth $17 million annually, with a player opt-out after the first season. This structure provides flexibility for Montas to rebuild his value while allowing the Mets to retain him if he flourishes.
Montas’ career has been a study in contrasts. His breakout 2021 campaign with Oakland saw him pitch 187 innings with a 3.37 ERA, earning him a sixth-place finish in AL Cy Young voting. However, shoulder surgery wiped out almost all of his 2023 season, and his 2024 campaign split between the Reds and Brewers yielded a 4.84 ERA over 30 starts. Despite the pedestrian numbers, Montas showed signs of resurgence late in the season, striking out 70 batters in 57⅓ innings after being traded to Milwaukee.
What sets Montas apart is his elite splitter—a pitch that induced whiffs on nearly 43% of swings last year, holding opponents to a .218 average. His five-pitch mix, headlined by a mid-90s fastball, offers versatility and the potential to return to his 2021 form. The Mets are betting that Montas, like Sean Manaea and Severino before him, can regain his footing in Queens.
While Severino’s career boasts higher peaks, Montas has shown a more consistent ability to pitch effectively over full seasons when healthy. Severino's higher walk rate and injury-prone nature contrast with Montas' reliance on his splitter and strikeout ability.
Mets' Rotational Outlook
Adding Montas represents another step in rebuilding the Mets’ rotation. He joins Kodai Senga and David Peterson in a group that still has holes to fill. With Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea possibly lost in free agency, and Severino unlikely to return, the Mets are leaning heavily on Montas to be an innings eater .
The team remains in pursuit of additional arms, including a potential ace, to complement Montas. As Stearns indicated, the Mets are not wedded to any single strategy, aiming to build a successful rotation through a mix of high-upside reclamation projects and proven talent.
Jeremy Hefner’s Impact
Hefner’s approach often centers on leveraging analytics to refine mechanics, improve pitch sequencing, and optimize pitch usage.
Lets analyze Luis Severino's improvement from 2023 to 2024, and then apply the same improvement percentages to project Frankie Montas's potential 2024 performance if he follows a similar trajectory of improvement under the guidance of pitching coach Jeremy Hefner. Here's a breakdown:
Improvement Percentages from Severino (2023 to 2024):
ERA: Improved by 48.1%
WHIP: Improved by 28.5%
Strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9): Increased by 23.4%
Home runs per 9 innings (HR/9): Improved by 56.5%
To project a realistic 2025 season for Frankie Montas, we can combine the improvements derived from applying Luis Severino's 2024 improvement percentages and those based on a more aggressive improvement path, such as the one we calculated based on Montas’s combined 2024 stats showing the same improvements as Severino.
For Montas to match Severino’s 2024 season, he would need to improve his ERA by 19.2%, his WHIP by 9.1%, his K/9 by 10.0%, and his HR/9 by 21.4%. This would lead to an ERA of 3.91, a WHIP of 1.24, a K/9 of 9.7, and a HR/9 of 1.1. However, if Montas were to show improvements more similar to those seen by Severino under the guidance of the Mets coaching staff in 2024 (with a larger impact), his ERA could drop to 2.51, his WHIP to 0.98, his K/9 to 10.87, and his HR/9 to 0.61.
A more balanced and realistic projection for Montas in 2025 likely falls somewhere between these two extremes. Given his previous performances and the typical growth curve for pitchers, it would be fair to expect improvements that are substantial but not overly optimistic. A reasonable projection would have Montas improving his ERA by 35%, his WHIP by 20%, his K/9 by 16%, and his HR/9 by 35%. This would result in a 3.15 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, and 0.9 HR/9.
These projected numbers represent a significant improvement over Montas's 2024 season but remain realistic within the context of his capabilities and the improvements he can make under better pitching instruction and development. With these improvements, Montas could have a much stronger 2025 season, contributing effectively to the Mets’ pitching staff with a solid ERA, lower WHIP, increased strikeouts, and fewer home runs allowed.
Conclusion
The signing of Frankie Montas represents another low-risk, high-upside move by David Stearns as he continues to reshape the Mets' starting rotation. Montas has proven that he can be an effective pitcher when healthy, as seen in his breakout 2021 season, and the Mets are banking on his ability to return to that form with the guidance of pitching coach Jeremy Hefner. The flexibility of the two-year deal allows Montas to rebuild his value while offering the Mets the potential for a solid contributor if he hits his stride. With a mix of a dominant splitter and a deep pitch arsenal, Montas has the tools to make significant improvements under Hefner's tutelage, similar to the strides Luis Severino made in 2024.
If Montas can replicate even a portion of Severino’s success from the previous season, the Mets stand to benefit from an impact arm in the middle of their rotation, alongside the already reliable Kodai Senga. While Montas comes with some risk due to his injury history, the Mets are not heavily invested in him long term, making this a sensible, low-risk signing. It’s a gamble that could pay big dividends if Montas can regain his form, and with Stearns' track record of finding value in reclamation projects, this signing fits well into the team’s broader strategy to strengthen the rotation without committing huge financial resources upfront.
Ultimately, Montas's 2025 season could serve as a key component in a rotation that aims for both stability and upside, with his success providing the Mets with another high-ceiling arm in their quest for a competitive 2025 season.
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