A Tale of Two Seasons: Comparing the 2023 and 2024 Mets' Offense
As the New York Mets start the Month of June in what has thus far a truly disappointing 2024 season, fans and analysts alike are delving into the team's offensive performance compared to the previous year. The 2023 Mets that finished 75-87, twelve games below .500, were 29-27 at the end of May, this season the Mets sat at 24-33 at the end of May. Despite a similar number of games played, the differences between the 2023 and 2024 Mets in various offensive metrics are noteworthy. Here’s a breakdown of the team’s offensive stats through May of each season:
The differences between the 2023 and 2024 Mets’ offensive performances are apparent in several key areas. While the 2024 Mets have more at-bats and doubles, their overall batting average has decreased from .245 to .234. This dip in average is accompanied by fewer home runs and runs batted in, indicating a possible decline in power hitting and clutch performance. Despite the increase in doubles and stolen bases, the 2024 Mets have struggled with strikeouts, recording 50 more than their 2023 counterparts. These statistics suggest that the 2024 Mets have a more aggressive but less consistent approach at the plate, potentially affecting their run production and overall efficiency.
While the 2024 Mets have seen significant turnover in their lineup, five key players—Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and Starling Marte—have been mainstays, playing a majority of games in both seasons. Next, we'll delve into how these players' performances compare across the two years.
Francisco Lindor
When comparing Francisco Lindor's performance between March and May of 2023 and 2024, several differences and similarities emerge. In 2024, Lindor played the same number of games (56) as he did in 2023, maintaining consistency in his presence on the field. One notable difference is an increase in hits from 49 to 54, suggesting improved contact with the ball. However, this increase in hits did not translate to an increase in RBIs, as he recorded 40 RBIs in 2023 compared to 29 in 2024. Interestingly, Lindor demonstrated more power in 2023, hitting 10 home runs compared to 9 in 2024. Despite these differences, certain aspects of his performance remained consistent across both years, such as the number of runs scored (33), walks (18), and total bases (94 in 2023 and 93 in 2024). Additionally, his batting average saw a slight improvement from .222 in 2023 to .233 in 2024, indicating a marginal enhancement in his overall batting proficiency. Overall, while there were fluctuations in specific metrics, Lindor's performance exhibited a blend of both consistency and evolution over the two seasons. It will be interesting to see if Lindor can match his second half numbers to repeat a 30-30 season.
Pete Alonso
In comparing Pete Alonso's performance from March to May in 2023 to that of 2024, several notable differences emerge. In terms of games played, Alonso participated in 56 games in 2023, while in 2024, he played slightly fewer, with 55 games. Despite this, Alonso had more at-bats in 2024, totaling 218 compared to 210 in 2023. Despite the increased opportunities, Alonso's run production decreased from 39 runs in 2023 to 31 in 2024. However, his ability to make contact improved slightly, with 51 hits in 2024 compared to 50 in 2023. A significant uptick in doubles was observed, jumping from 4 in 2023 to 13 in 2024, indicating an enhanced ability to hit for extra bases. Conversely, his home run output declined from 20 in 2023 to 12 in 2024, and his RBI count decreased from 46 to 27, suggesting a decrease in his effectiveness in driving in runs. While his stolen bases, walks, and strikeouts remained relatively consistent between the two years, there was a notable decrease in total bases, dropping from 116 in 2023 to 100 in 2024. This decline in total bases, along with a slightly lower batting average of .233 compared to .238 in 2023, indicates a decrease in overall offensive production for Alonso in 2024 compared to the previous year. Could Pete's pending free agency be playing a role in his offensive decline this season ? Will the Mets get an adequate return for Pete if his numbers do not show a big improvement prior to the deadline?
Brandon Nimmo
In March-May 2023, Brandon Nimmo demonstrated a robust performance, amassing 214 at-bats with an impressive 63 hits, resulting in a batting average of .294. He showcased his ability to consistently get on base, tallying 32 runs scored and hitting 10 doubles, 4 triples, and 4 home runs. While his power numbers may not have been staggering, his overall offensive contribution was notable, with 21 runs batted in. Nimmo's ability to draw walks (27) added another dimension to his offensive game, mitigating his strikeouts (49) and resulting in a healthy total of 93 bases.
However, March-May 2024 painted a slightly different picture for Nimmo. Despite a decrease in at-bats (196), his hits dropped to 42, leading to a diminished batting average of .214. Notably, his power output surged, with 7 home runs, but his doubles and triples declined. While he drove in more runs (29), his ability to get on base via walks improved (33), though accompanied by an increase in strikeouts (58). Consequently, his total bases dropped to 74.
Analyzing these trends, it's apparent that while Nimmo's power improved in 2024, his overall offensive effectiveness suffered due to a decrease in batting average and hits. The increase in home runs could indicate a shift in his approach at the plate, prioritizing power over contact. However, this came at the expense of consistency and on-base ability, as reflected in the decline in doubles and triples, and the increase in strikeouts. Nimmo's ability to draw walks remained a strength, suggesting a disciplined approach, but it wasn't enough to compensate fully for the decline in other offensive metrics. These insights underscore the nuanced dynamics of player performance over different seasons, highlighting areas for potential improvement and adjustment in Nimmo's approach to maintain his overall effectiveness.
Jeff McNeil
Analyzing Jeff McNeil's performance through May 2023 compared to May 2024 reveals significant shifts in his offensive output. In 2023, McNeil maintained a respectable batting average of .252, with 57 hits in 226 at-bats. His ability to get on base was evident with 20 walks, but his strikeout rate was also notable at 20. He contributed significantly to his team's runs with 25 scored and 16 RBIs, showcasing both his ability to get on base and his knack for timely hitting. However, his power numbers were relatively modest, with only 2 home runs and 6 doubles. Fast forward to May 2024, McNeil's offensive production took a downturn. His batting average dropped to .224, reflecting a decline in his ability to make consistent contact. Despite hitting more doubles and home runs, his total bases decreased, indicating a decrease in the impact of his hits. Notably, his strikeout rate increased to 25, suggesting potential struggles with pitch recognition or timing. While McNeil's ability to draw walks remained relatively consistent, his overall offensive contribution, as reflected by runs scored and RBIs, diminished. These comparisons highlight not only the fluctuations in McNeil's performance but also potential areas for improvement or adjustment in his approach at the plate.
Starling Marte
Analyzing Starling Marte's statistical progression from May 2023 to May 2024 reveals a noteworthy evolution in his performance. In 2023, Marte's batting average sat at .223, reflecting inconsistency at the plate, while his on-base skills were evident with 13 walks. However, his strikeout count of 34 was a concern, impacting his overall offensive contribution. Fast forward to May 2024, Marte's batting average saw a substantial uptick to .271, indicating a significant improvement in his ability to make contact and get on base consistently. Despite facing more strikeouts, his power at the plate notably surged, with an increase in home runs and doubles, leading to a considerable jump in his total bases. Moreover, Marte's increased RBI count suggests a heightened impact in driving runs, showcasing a more potent offensive presence on the field. Although his stolen bases slightly decreased, his overall offensive production indicates a more well-rounded and impactful player in 2024. This transformation underscores Marte's adaptability and growth as a key player, making him a more formidable trade asset for his team should they fall out of wild card contention.
As the 2024 Mets assess their standing, trailing the 2023 Mets by 5.5 games through the end of May, a detailed analysis reveals multifaceted reasons behind this disparity. Examining the core four comparisons above sheds light on crucial differences impacting performance. While offensive production from key players show significant drop offs from 3 of the five, pitching depth and defensive efficiency also emerge as pivotal factors. The 2023 Mets boasted a more stable rotation and bullpen, leading to better run prevention. Additionally, defensive metrics indicate a tighter defense in the previous season. These nuanced disparities illustrate the intricate dynamics shaping the team's current position. Yet, baseball's unpredictable nature offers opportunities for adjustments and improvements. While it is only June, as Yogi says it "Gets late early here."
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