Barring something untoward, Juan Soto….superstar Juan Soto…in his prime Juan Soto..generational player Juan Soto..is a New York Met. Keep on saying that to yourself as we stoke up the Hot Stove and let our KinersKorner.com staff react to today’s earth-shattering free agent signing news. Here’s how we all weigh in:
A.J. Carter: Like all longtime Met fans – and in this group, I think I’m the only one old enough to have followed them since their 1962 creation – the Juan Soto signing excites me, but also sets me to wondering: is a bad shoe waiting to drop to counteract my euphoria? Is there a down side? To answer my own question: there is a down side only if this is it for the Mets this offseason. They still need to fill out a rotation with pitchers who do not need leaps of faith (Frankie Montas can become the next Luis Severino, Clay Holmes can become the next Seth Lugo) to engender confidence. Can they convince Rosi Sasaki that a similar payday would await him once he gets past his initial contract? If they manage to sign Sean Manaea, will he be the 2024 version or revert to his previous form? They still need to fill out the infield, assuming welcoming Soto means saying goodbye to Pete Alonso ( I'm convinced the Yankees will be forced to throw crazy money at Alonso to save some face after losing Soto to the Mets). And I think they need to figure out centerfield, unless Brandon Nimmo moves back there and Starling Marte moves to left. To me, Tyrone Taylor is one of those players whose lustre wanes under an everyday spotlight.
So my message to my fellow Mets fans is: enjoy today, probably the best player acquisition day since the Mets made the Mike Piazza trade. But don’t reserve your spot in the Canyon of Heroes. Soto alone doesn’t guarantee a parade.
Mark Rosenman : Oh, A.J., you’re like that one friend who, when presented with a winning lottery ticket, immediately wonders how much taxes will eat into the jackpot. I get it; you’ve been around long enough to see the Mets build sandcastles of hope that occasionally get obliterated by a high tide. But, come on, can we bask in the Juan Soto glow for just a moment before worrying if Pete Alonso’s packing peanuts are recyclable?
Now, I know I tend to air on the side of optimism. It’s practically my brand. Remember last year when the ship was sinking, I was still here, waving my “Ya Gotta Believe”flag and insisting there was a path to the playoffs. (Speaking of Ya Gotta Believe pick up your copy of The Forgotten Miracle: The Story of the 1973 Mets on Amazon today..Gratuitous plug)
Does signing Soto make the Mets the odds-on favorite to win the NL East? Nope. Let’s not start booking our Canyon of Heroes parade float just yet. The Phillies and Braves are still those annoyingly talented neighbors who always seem to have freshly mowed lawns and a freezer stocked with championship potential. But are the Mets better today than they were 24 hours ago? Absolutely. I mean, they basically traded in a station wagon for a Rolls-Royce La Rose Noire Droptail. And no, Steve Cohen isn’t about to take that luxury car off-roading. The man knows it’s going to take more than Soto to conquer the East, let alone dethrone the Dodgers.
What excites me is that, for the first time in forever, the Mets seem to have both the right baseball minds and an owner with the financial muscle to build around Soto. It’s like they’re finally playing chess instead of checkers.
So, A.J., my fellow long-suffering Mets fan, let’s take a moment to savor this rare, delicious slice of baseball euphoria. Soto may not guarantee a championship, but he’s a big step in the right direction. Besides, if there’s one thing we’ve learned as Mets fans, it’s this: even if the shoe does drop, there’s always another game, another season, and another reason to believe.
And if all else fails, there’s still Shake Shack at Citi Field.
Matthew Silverman: OMG! Too late? Too soon? (I just bought a little handheld sign of the Jose Iglesias-inspired theme at the Queens Baseball Conference on Saturday–if this news had broken during that event in Flushing, it would have hit a 22 on the Richter scale.) Um, where was I? Ah, Juan Soto. Sure, the Mets have a pretty bad history when it comes to free agents. Carlos Beltran may have been the best one, yet he still gets a lot of grief from Mets fans for being fooled by a curve ball at the worst possible time. Soto–or more accurately, owner Steve Cohen–can change all that. Let’s take this for what it is. An absolute coup! It’s a bald-face theft from the big brother who has always treated your every accomplishment as, “That’s nice. But did I ever tell you about the time that I…”
And with this gargantuan contract you only really need to focus five years down the road when he can opt out and the numbers thrown around today may seem quaint by industry standards. He may not be a Met for life. That’s OK if both parties get what they want. Money on his end and an elusive championship on our side. Cohen has allowed Mets fans the rarest of luxuries: Live in the now; dream in the future. Maybe sign a pitcher and find out which of the accumulated prospects is worth a shot in New York, and which ones can bring back a stud pitcher. Or two.
John Coppinger: Of course, Juan Soto alone isn’t going to deliver the Mets to the promised land. But don’t forget how much money came off the books this offseason. It’s way more than the $51 million that Soto will command this year. There’s room to grow and I think the Mets will capitalize on that. The only question is “how”.
The conventional wisdom says “starting pitching”. But it doesn’t seem like David Stearns is too keen on spending a lot of money on starters. I could see him bringing back Manaea. But let’s face it: The bets on Severino and Manaea were right on the money and they got to the NLCS without Kodai Senga seeing more than six innings all regular season. Plus, what did the Phillies do with Doc (Halladay, not Gooden), Oswalt, Lee and Hamels in their rotation? How many World Series did the Braves win with three Hall of Famers in their rotation for 11 seasons? And the incredibly hyped “five aces” that the Mets had? They barely had one rotation turn together.
So I wouldn’t be surprised if the rest of the playbook read “Alonso, Manaea, spare parts and bullpen” with blank pages at the end for doodling. But even if Manaea goes elsewhere, I don’t think it’s a crushing blow. Lineups and bullpens win in the postseason. I think that will be the focus going forward, and there’s enough money to prop them up to championship level.
Mike Phillips: The Juan Soto move is a game changer for the franchise in terms of both ability to contend right now and perception. Before the arrival of Steve Cohen, the idea that a Top 5 player in the sport in his prime would leave the Yankees for the Mets was laughable, but Cohen pulled out the big bucks to secure Soto’s services for 15 years and $805 million. (Yes, technically this is a $765 million contract but if Soto performs well enough to trigger his opt out $40 million is pocket change for Cohen to keep him around).
The deal is certainly an overpay since the only other $700 million contract in baseball went to a guy in Shohei Ohtani who can pitch and hit. While paying $765 million for any player isn’t rational, Dodgers’ GM Andrew Friedman once said that if you’re rational in the market you’ll finish third for every player. The Mets needed Soto to elevate them towards a championship window for the long haul and having the modern day incarnation of Ted Williams at the top of the lineup should pay for itself over at least the first half of this contract.
There is still more work to do, namely at first base and in the rotation, but Cohen isn’t going to let the luxury tax stop him from filling the team’s holes. A reunion with Pete Alonso seems likely for first while David Stearns will continue to add starting pitching, either by retaining Sean Manaea, adding a couple of arms in the Walker Buehler/Nate Eovaldi bucket, or swinging a trade to get a proven veteran to help fortify the rotation. The Corbin Burnes/Max Fried contracts will go long, which is not something Stearns wants to do for pitchers in their 30s, so expect him to stay away from that end of the pool.
While a $765 million contract would hamstring most front offices, Cohen isn’t most teams and has publicly stated that he views his ownership of the Mets as a responsibility to give the fans a winning product, not turn a profit. There are avenues for him to lower payroll in the future, especially if they can hit on some of their young prospects over the next three years, but this move sets them up to be in the tournament every year, which is the first step to becoming the kind of perennial threat the Dodgers have become.
Shai Kushner: It’s true - nothing is guaranteed. This could turn out to be a huge mistake. Injuries happen, unexpected things occur, Soto could repeat his pretty pedestrian 2022 season, or other scenarios I don’t care to imagine. Any time a team invests top $ in a player it's risky. This time, it's so far beyond top $, that the risk seems multiplied exponentially. And, for a franchise with a history of being at the center of drama, with extreme examples of good and bad outcomes, it's understandable that some fans might feel nervous (whether they want to admit it or not).
This is new territory for the Mets. Any player I try to use as a comparison falls short, for obvious reasons. Juan Soto is one of the top (5? 3?) hitters in baseball and he just turned 26, so he hasn't even entered what most would consider his "prime" years. His worst single-season OPS, the above-mentioned 2022 season, was still better than any Mets OPS from last year. This isn’t the 1992 signing of Bobby Bonilla. This isn’t the 2005 signing of Carlos Beltran, as successful as that was (a conversation for another time). My first thought was comparing it to the acquisition and then re-signing of Mike Piazza, and still there are some significant differences there. I'm also reminded of when the Mets acquired and then signed Johan Santana. I honestly thought the Mets would be a perennial playoff team after he joined, and they never played one postseason game with him. So yeah, it's not guaranteed.
And yet...I couldn't sleep last night. If everyone is right (and yeah, it's just about everyone), Soto is a "generational talent" and now he's on the Mets. For a long time. My newborn son will be a junior in high school at the end of this contract. This idea is as monumental as his contract. And it seems like it really is an indicator of a new approach in Queens. Scott Boras used other teams for leverage the way the Mets have often been used, including the Yankees, which just doesn't happen. Until it happened.
I do agree that they can't stop here.
The Mets success in 2024 was predicated on faith in an approach that didn't totally make sense and perhaps some luck, although I'd like to believe they made their own luck. Soto doesn't negate that. Now they have to build on what they have. Considering the team they want to use as the model is the team that just beat the Mets in the NLCS and then won the World Series, I'm going to have faith that the front office is aware of this.
So, while this move brings with it some level of trepidation for me, it brings a whole lot more excitement, optimism, and happiness.
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