Our expert commentators trade opinions on how to shoulder the burden of replacing the Mets' would-be ace
A.J. Carter: Spring Training is barely 10 days old, and already I’m feeling that one wheel is off the bus. I’m talking, of course, about Kodai Senga’s shoulder injury and the alarmingly indefinite timeline for his return. If history is any guide, the vagueness of the statements about the seriousness of the injury is a setup for next week’s more distressing news that he will undergo some type of season-ending shoulder surgery. And I’m not convinced that Mets brass have taken a cold, hard look at where this leaves the rotation. Forget about who will step up to fill the rotation spot. Who can be counted on to be the ace? Who can take the ball when you need a stopper? And if he comes back, can the Mets count on Senga to take a regular rotation turn? Talk me off the ledge, John.
John Coppinger: I’m not sure that I’m prepared to talk you off the ledge because Senga is such an important piece for this team, especially in what is in theory and reality a “reset” year. I’m a little higher on the rotation than most. I like the Sean Manaea signing, and I think the depth that Adrian Houser will provide will be key, and Tylor Megill’s new “American Spork” pitch has me intrigued. But there are so many question marks – from Jose Quintana’s health to whether the Mets and their pitching lab can fix Luis Severino – that losing the closest thing they have to an ace in Senga makes all the warts more prominent.
A.J. Carter: I think you hit the nail on the head, there. The problem with almost the entire rotation is that its success depends on best-case scenarios. A lot of wishful thinking. That was the case even with a healthy Senga, and is even more so with him out. The phrase that keeps sticking in my head is David Stearns saying he expects Senga to make “a bunch of starts” this season. How much is a bunch? Five? Ten? They need more from him if they are to be in any way competitive – or they need to face facts now, while it is still early in spring training and some free agent possibilities are still available, to shore up the rotation. I keep on reading the constant references to “depth” and “depth pieces.” To me, those are euphemisms for “bench players.” And the problem with bench players is that even if they perform well in the short term, over time, they show why they are the bench and not the first string.
John Coppinger: This is an interesting year in that there are still some high quality pitchers out there in free agency. The catch is that they’re Scott Boras’ clients and their price has surely gone up. Personally, I’m a Jordan Montgomery fan. Held the Astros with a 1.29 ERA in 14 innings in the ALCS, and he seems to be a horse. But the Mets would probably have to sign him long term and I don’t think they’re going to sign any long term contracts that could compromise what they want to do in the future with guys like Juan Soto and (hopefully), Pete Alonso. I also don’t think they’re going to make a commitment just to salvage a “reset” year that might not be salvageable.
A.J. Carter: Montgomery checks all of my boxes, too. Blake Snell, as good as he is, should come as a package with a middle-inning reliever because he doesn’t go more than five. With all due deference to our colleague, Mark Rosenman, I’m not sure that even if you get by his baggage, or maybe because of it, Trevor Bauer, won’t be able to handle the New York media scrutiny. Maybe we’re not at that point, yet, and maybe Stearns is waiting in the wings to swoop down and grab Montgomery on a short-term deal if he remains unsigned. But to me, at least, that’s a risky gamble. I’d try to sign him to a two-year deal and if the season goes south, trade him in August and get more prospects.
John Coppinger: It’s risky because someone else will come up with a deal for Montgomery that will be better than a short term “prove it” deal. (Say what you want about Boras, in the end he does right by his clients.) As for Bauer, I don’t think it’s worth alienating a huge part of your fan base to bring this guy in for one season. I read a recent interview he gave to the L.A. Times where he seems to be contrite up to a certain point. But there’s too much there for me, including his social media presence which got him into trouble in Japan after he handed off his accounts to other people to run. Gone are the days where off field baggage doesn’t matter. In this day and age it does, even if it doesn’t matter to you specifically. I’d have a hard time rooting with my heart for Bauer. And even if you decide to ignore everything he comes with, I’m not sure he can spend two seasons away from the major leagues and come back and give you anything more than a mediocre season. It’s not that easy.
A.J. Carter: I agree, character counts. I don’t think if he were around today, teams would be jumping to sign Ty Cobb, even if he were a Scott Boras client. But here’s my issue about what the team seems not to be doing: They don’t even seem to be trying for a major piece. If they made a pitch for Montgomery and were outbid, so be it. But Stearns seems to have brought his small-market mentality from the Brewers, not just his baseball acumen, so much so that I’m thinking of starting to call our team the New York Rheingolds. I’m not asking for them to chase every aging, high-priced free agent. We saw how that didn’t work. But I wish that every now and then, they’d shop at Macy’s instead of TJ Maxx.
John Coppinger: First off, I will not stand for TJ Maxx slander. Second, let’s not forget that the Mets offered $325 million to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. David Stearns couldn’t offer $325 million combined to every free agent he dealt with in Milwaukee combined. Third, let’s not forget that Steve Cohen is a fan. A very rich fan, but a fan. I’m sure he remembers how contracts like the one handed out to Jason Bay crippled the team for years. He’s very particular about who he hands his money to, and it seems to be that it’s the cream of the crop or nobody. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were the cream of the crop, and now those contracts are hindering them for this season. But better that than to just go after someone as a stop gap and have that contract prevent them from bigger fish in years to come. I always thought that Juan Soto in ‘25 was the goal. If a longer term deal for older stars Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell prevents them from the bigger goals, then it’s not getting done. Frankly, I’m okay with that.
Comentários