The 2026 Mets Prediction Series: Kodai Senga

We are now less than two weeks away from Opening Day, which means across Mets Nation the annual ritual has begun.

No, not spring cleaning.

Prediction season.

From now until the first pitch of the season at Citi Field, we’re going to spend a few minutes each day here at Kiner’s Korner doing something Mets fans love almost as much as debating—50 years later—whether Yogi Berra should have started George Stone in Game 6 and Tom Seaver in Game 7 of the 1973 World Series.

Trying to predict the future of the New York Mets.

And since none of us actually owns a functioning crystal ball (mine was recalled in 1993 after predicting the Mets would win 110 games), we’re going to lean on the next best things:

the oddsmakers in Las Vegas and the statistical supercomputers that churn out projections all winter long.

So what do the baseball fortune tellers think about the 2026 Mets?

Let’s continue with Kodai Senga.

Every Mets fan knows the moment when Kodai Senga throws his signature pitch.

The hitter swings.

The catcher lunges.

The broadcast booth pauses.

And somewhere in Queens, a Mets fan says the same thing every time:

"That pitch should come with a missing persons report."

Yes, the Ghost Fork has arrived.

But heading into 2026, the question surrounding Senga isn’t talent—it’s durability. When he’s been on the mound for the Mets, he’s been excellent. The issue has simply been how often he’s been on the mound.

So let’s once again consult the Kiner’s Korner crystal ball and see what the projection systems think.

The projection systems see Kodai Senga having a solid but somewhat limited season in 2026. The forecast from Baseball-Reference projects a 7–6 record with a 3.46 ERA across 117 innings and roughly 118 strikeouts.

Meanwhile, the numbers from FanGraphs come in very close, predicting a 7–7 record, a 3.85 ERA, 119 innings pitched, and 119 strikeouts. In other words, the computers believe Senga will be effective when he’s on the mound but are hedging a bit when it comes to workload. That’s understandable—projection models tend to be cautious creatures. They operate under the assumption that pitchers are fragile by nature, which, if you’ve followed Mets pitching for more than about ten minutes, feels historically accurate.

So here at Kiner’s Korner, we’ll split the difference and set our own over/under lines based on those forecasts. Combining the projections gives us a benchmark of 7.5 wins, a 3.65 ERA, 118 innings pitched, and 118 strikeouts. Now the only question left is which way the crystal ball and the Mets fanbase leans.

Kodai Senga Under/Over 7.5 Wins

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Kodai Senga Under/Over 3.65 ERA

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Kodai Senga Under/Over 118 Innings Pitched

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Kodai Senga Under/Over 118 K's

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