The 2026 Mets Prediction Series: Carson Benge

We are now one day away from Opening Day, which means across Mets Nation the annual ritual is alive and well.

No, not rearranging the garage.

Prediction season.

We have spent the the last 15 days here at Kiner’s Korner doing something Mets fans cherish almost as much as debating—half a century later—whether Yogi Berra should have flipped George Stone and Tom Seaver in Games 6 and 7 of the 1973 World Series.

We’re trying to predict the future of the New York Mets.

And since my crystal ball has been unreliable ever since it told me in 1993 the Mets would win 110 games, we turn instead to the next best thing:

Las Vegas odds, and the army of projection systems that crunch numbers all winter long.

So what do the baseball fortune tellers say about the 2026 Mets?

Let’s wrap up the series with Carson Benge.

At 23, Carson Benge isn’t just part of the future—he’s suddenly part of the present.

Named the Mets’ Opening Day right fielder, Benge arrives in Flushing with momentum, confidence, and just enough swagger to make you believe he doesn’t plan on going back to Syracuse anytime soon. After a spring where he hit .366 and looked like he belonged from the first crack of the bat (once he got past that 0-for-5 hiccup), the Mets didn’t just hand him a job—he earned it.

And maybe more importantly, he looked like he earned it.

FanGraphs projects Benge to hit around .241 with 10 home runs, 47 RBI, and about 8 stolen bases over roughly 400 plate appearances.

Other systems land in a similar neighborhood—some a little lighter on the power, some a little more optimistic if the playing time sticks—but the consensus is clear:

This is a rookie with tools, not just promise.

What stands out isn’t one overwhelming skill—it’s the balance. Benge does a little bit of everything. He can run, he can defend, he can work an at-bat, and he has enough pop to punish a mistake. He’s the kind of player who doesn’t need to dominate a game to impact it. He just…keeps showing up in the middle of things.

In other words, the kind of player Mets fans tend to fall for by mid-May.

Defensively, the reports are just as encouraging. A strong arm—strong enough that the Mets shifted Juan Soto to left field this spring—paired with good instincts gives Benge a chance to be more than serviceable in right. He won’t just hold the position—he might make it a strength.

So where do we land here at Kiner’s Korner, where optimism occasionally outruns common sense but always brings a scorecard?

Blending the projections with what we saw this spring, we’ll set the over/under for Carson Benge’s rookie season at:

.242 batting average, 11 home runs, 50 RBI, and 9 stolen bases.

Carson Benge Under/Over .242 Batting Average

• 0%Over
• 0%Under

Carson Benge Under/Over 11 Home Runs

• 0%Over
• 0%Under

Carson Benge Under/Over 50 RBI

• 0%Over
• 0%Under

Carson Benge Under/Over 9 Stolen Bases

• 0%Over
• 0%Under

The crystal ball, as always, is a little foggy—but here’s what feels real:

Carson Benge might not be a finished product.

But he doesn’t look overwhelmed. He doesn’t look temporary. And he definitely doesn’t look like someone just happy to be here.

He looks like someone who plans to stay.

And for a Mets team trying to blend star power with youth, that might be exactly what they need.

We’d love to hear your thoughts on Carson Benge and what you expect from him this season. Drop your comments below. And if you want to keep the conversation going, join our Kiner’s Korner Facebook group—where Mets fans gather to debate, predict, and occasionally insist they *knew this all along.*