The 2026 Mets Prediction Series: Devin Williams

We are now two days away from Opening Day, which means across Mets Nation the annual ritual has begun.

No, not spring cleaning.

Prediction season.

From now until the first pitch of the season at Citi Field, we’re going to spend a few minutes each day here at Kiner’s Korner doing something Mets fans love almost as much as debating 50 years later whether Yogi Berra should have started George Stone in Game 6 and Tom Seaver in Game 7 of the 1973 World Series.

Trying to predict the future of the New York Mets.

And since none of us actually owns a functioning crystal ball—mine was recalled in 1993 after predicting the Mets would win 110 games—we’re going to lean on the next best things:

the oddsmakers in Las Vegas and the statistical supercomputers that churn out projections all winter long.

So what do the baseball fortune tellers think about the 2026 Mets?

Let’s continue with Devin Williams.

At 31, Devin Williams arrives in Queens with one very specific job description—take the ball in the ninth inning and make sure everyone can exhale on the way to the parking lot. After years of dominance highlighted by one of the most unhittable changeups in baseball, Williams gives the Mets something they’ve been searching for: a true back-end presence who can shorten games to eight innings.

Baseball Reference projects Williams to go 4-4 with a 3.88 ERA, 14 saves, and 71 strikeouts over 58 innings. Those numbers suggest effectiveness, but also hint at something less than a full-time closer workload.

FanGraphs, however, paints a more definitive picture. Their projections forecast a 3.12 ERA with around 32 saves and elite strikeout rates north of 11 per nine innings—much more in line with a pitcher expected to lock down the ninth inning on a regular basis.

What stands out, as always, is the swing-and-miss ability. Williams doesn’t just get outs—he erases at-bats. His changeup, often described as unfair by hitters and probably a few umpires, generates whiffs in big spots and keeps the ball out of play when it matters most. In a bullpen role where one mistake can flip a game, that’s about as valuable a trait as you can have.

There is, however, the occasional tightrope act. Walks can creep in, and when command wavers, innings can get interesting in that “maybe don’t sit down just yet” kind of way. But more often than not, Williams finds a way to slam the door before things get out of hand.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvkcvoWLq7k

So where do we land here at Kiner’s Korner, where optimism occasionally overrides logic but always brings a calculator?

Blending the projections and the eye test, we set the over/under lines for Williams’ 2026 season at:

3.30 ERA, 30 saves, and 80 strikeouts.

What do you think?

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The crystal ball, as always, is a little cloudy—but here is what feels clear:

Devin Williams brings something every contender needs and every fan base sleeps better having.

A finisher.

He won’t be asked to carry the team, or pitch multiple innings every night, or solve every bullpen issue. What he will do is take those tense, late-inning moments and tilt them in the Mets’ favor more often than not.

And if things go according to plan, the last image Mets fans see a lot this season will be a swing, a miss, and a handshake line forming behind the mound.

We would love to hear your thoughts on Devin Williams and what he can bring to this Mets team. Drop your comments below. And if you want to keep the conversation going, join our Kiner’s Korner Facebook group. It’s the perfect place to share opinions, predictions, and, of course, a little healthy Mets debate.