The 2026 Mets Prediction Series: Clay Holmes

We are now less than one week away from Opening Day, which means across Mets Nation the annual ritual has begun.

No, not spring cleaning.

Prediction season.

From now until the first pitch of the season at Citi Field, we’re going to spend a few minutes each day here at Kiner’s Korner doing something Mets fans love almost as much as debating 50 years later whether Yogi Berra should have started George Stone in Game 6 and Tom Seaver in Game 7 of the 1973 World Series.

Trying to predict the future of the New York Mets.

And since none of us actually owns a functioning crystal ball mine was recalled in 1993 after predicting the Mets would win 110 games we’re going to lean on the next best things

the oddsmakers in Las Vegas and the statistical supercomputers that churn out projections all winter long.

So what do the baseball fortune tellers think about the 2026 Mets

Let’s continue with Clay Holmes.

Clay Holmes enters 2026 not as a reliever learning a new role, but as a starter building on a strong transition in 2025. Last year he proved he could handle rotation duties, logging 165 innings with 12 wins, a 3.53 ERA, and 129 strikeouts. He showed the ability to give the Mets length in games, eat innings, and set the tone early—an invaluable skill in a rotation that’s often looking for reliability.

Baseball Reference still shows skewed numbers because their projections include relief appearances.

FanGraphs give a clearer picture of Holmes as a starter. They forecast roughly 153–154 innings, 66–73 earned runs, 125–130 strikeouts, and an ERA between 3.86 and 3.89. In short, Holmes looks poised to take the next step as a full-time starter.

What stands out with Holmes is his combination of stuff and control. His fastball sits in the mid-90s, his slider generates swings and misses, and his cutter keeps hitters off balance. With a year of starter experience under his belt, he should be able to work deeper into games, manage lineups efficiently, and take pressure off the bullpen.

Blending the projections and the eye test, we set the over/under lines for Holmes’ 2026 season at

3.87 ERA, 129 strikeouts, and 10 wins.

What do you think

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Clay Holmes Under/Over 129 Strikeouts

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Clay Holmes Under/Over 3.87 ERA

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The crystal ball is a little foggy, as starter projections always are, but with last year’s experience under his belt, Holmes looks ready to be a dependable piece of the rotation.

We would love to hear your thoughts on Clay Holmes and how you see him building on last season. Drop your comments below. And if you want to keep the conversation going, join our Kiner’s Korner Facebook group. It’s the perfect place to share opinions, predictions, and of course, a little healthy Mets debate.