Let's call the 2025 Mets what they actually were ...

First off, let me get some semantics out of the way:

Everyone and their mothers are calling the plight of the 2025 Mets a "collapse". It's easy, it sells papers, and it accumulates clicks. But the reality of the 2025 season is worse than that.

2007 was a collapse. They were up 7 with 17 to play. They were a good team that was headed for glory before they vomited on themselves with two and a half weeks to go in the season. Now contrast that to 2025, where the team vomited on themselves for 3 and 1/2 months. Since June 13th, the Mets were 15 games behind the Marlins in the standings. That's not a small sample size, and it's not a collapse. Losing 2 of 3 in Miami to end the season really isn't that much of a shock when you look at the large enough sample size of more than half the season. When you look at it that way, you have no choice but to agree that the 2025 Mets didn't collapse ...

The 2025 Mets were just a bad team.

It was the reverse of 2024, where the majority of the season was played at a 100 win pace after the bad start. 2025 featured 3 and 1/2 months of the team playing at a clip that was among the bottom five teams in baseball. It wasn't a fluke, just as 2024 wasn't the fluke of Grimace and Candelita. They were a good baseball team that just had a bad start. 2025? Strike that ... reverse it.

It's easy to say that this was a case of not getting bang for your buck, and there were a lot of bucks strung about in a payroll of $342,377,486 (adjusted per Spotrac). But when you look at the top salaries on the Mets, most of them produced on an acceptable level, if not more. Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz were the top four earners on the team, and they all had good to great overall seasons. Starling Marte was fifth, and while he was too injured to make a difference, he was far from a problem. Brandon Nimmo was Lucas Duda level streaky, But he was a 25 HR 92 RBI guy with an OPS+ of 114. Again, far from the problem. So that's roughly $187 million of the $342M that by and large produced what the Mets could have hoped for, and then some. So it isn't really a case of money misspent, at least not for the top half of the payroll.

So who is to blame? Look, when you're a bad team, everyone shares in it. Carlos Mendoza is a good manager who I believe has the ability to return this team to the top. But boy, did he have a rough six weeks to end the season. Many of his missteps came from managing too passively, waiting until it was too late to pull a pitcher. All of that led to the final day of the season when he went into hyperdrive with the staff, pulling Sean Manaea extremely fast, and putting Brooks Raley in the game in the 3rd inning. Just as players have rough stretches for six weeks, managers can as well. This was Mendoza's first real rough patch as Mets manager and it came at the wrong time.

In Mendoza's defense, if he had a dependable starting pitcher besides two rookies that came up in August and September, he would have pitched five innings in Game 162. But he didn't. He may have pulled Manaea too quick, but it isn't as if Manaea earned the benefit of the doubt in what was a lost season for him due mainly to an oblique injury. In David Peterson's last nine starts of the season, he had an ERA of 8.42, and that included an 8 inning gem against Washington. So it's no wonder that Peterson didn't see time in that final game. Kodai Senga was a Cy Young candidate until he got hurt, and then he became so undependable that he was in the minor leagues during that final game. He wasn't even dependable enough to be on the roster. These are three guys who were being counted on to anchor the staff, and all three fell off the face of the earth. No team can survive that.

The bullpen? Outside of Diaz and Raley, they share in this too. The third best pitcher in that bullpen seemed to be whoever was the mop-up man at the time, eating innings for everyone else. Those were the Brandon Waddells and the Justin Hagenmens of the world. The rest? You had Ryne Stanek, who was way too streaky. Gregory Soto, who was way too volatile. Reed Garrett, who frightening on his good days. There were others, who we'll get to later.

Then the offense, who must share in this blame too. The Fab Four were fab, but on its best days, the lineup was top heavy. They left a lot of runners on base in the first four months of the season when about five well timed hits would have put the Mets comfortably in a playoff spot. When they corrected that and went bonkers with RISP in August, it came at a time where the pitching was so bad that it didn't make a difference. And ... fairly or unfairly ... when you have that kind of lineup putting up five hits in Game 162 when your figurative lives are in the line and the Reds give you a gift by losing to the Brewers, you share in this too.

(Aside: There were many games that could have changed the script of the season if they went the other way, as shown above. Let's face it, these games happen to everybody. But the one game that I knew that OMG had a vastly different connotation than what it once had for us: the one where a 6-0 lead in a David Peterson vs Carlos Carrasco start was laid to waste. That was the uh-oh moment that led to a fulfilled prophecy of doom, and showed me that maybe this team wasn't quite as good as we thought they were.)

When a season like this happens, and this many people share the blame, you look to the top, because it always comes from the top. The top, in this case, is GM David Stearns. 2025 lies on Stearns, and he knows it. Steve Cohen's chosen one was the guy that put this team together, and he has to be the one to ultimately take responsibility. For all the moves on the fringes that worked in 2024 (Jose Iglesias, Jesse Winker, Phil Maton, Stanek), they most assuredly did not work in 2025.

(And let's leave Juan Soto out of this because I'm confident enough to say that if a chewed up dog toy was the GM of the team, it still would have been smart enough to spend Steve Cohen's money on Juan Soto.)

Jose Siri was hurt for much of the year, but besides a .304 average in the first 21 games of his career in 2021, Siri has been an awful hitter. And when he came back late in the season, his defense ... which was his calling card, was not a net positive. Siri was someone that Stearns was best advised to stay away from

Cedric Mullins had an .878 OPS in 2021, but has been the definition of mediocrity since (a .711 OPS). With the Mets, he had an abysmal .565 OPS. With Ramon Laureano (an .812 OPS in 50 games since his trade to San Diego) sitting right next to Mullins on the Orioles roster, Stearns made the obvious wrong choice there.

Then came his pitching acquisitions. Tyler Rogers was a slam dunk get, and you can't blame Stearns for going after him to fortify the 'pen (even at the expense of Drew Gilbert who, at this stage of his career seems more Peter Bourjos than Mike Trout.) But Rogers' statistics dipped with the Mets: His WHIP went from 0.860 to 1.098, his ERA+ went from 222 to 197, he gave up 8.9 H/9 as opposed to 7.0 as a Giant. His numbers were still good, but not at the level that he was at in San Francisco.

Then there was Ryan Helsley, who came with enough fanfare to get his own fancy entrance lighting in his first game as a Met (a scoreless 9th inning) and ended his season with seven straight scoreless innings in six appearances, giving up three hits and three walks in that stretch. Unfortunately, that stretch came too late for it to matter, as in between the start and the finish, Helsley was beyond horrific, going 0-3 in 15 games with an ERA of 12.00 (TWELVE!!!) in 12 innings, giving up 20 hits, eight walks and four homers. Hitters were teeing off on his fastball, hitting over .400 off the heat all season. Helsley regularly hitting 100 on the gun makes that stat all the more baffling.

But before those two, there was the signing of Frankie Montas. Montas, I always felt, was a product of pitching in Oakland. As an Athletic, Montas went 35-30 with an ERA of 3.70, a FIP of 3.72, and a WHIP of 1.267. Since then (and even before then with the White Sox), Montas never saw an ERA below 4.55, and that was in his brief time as a Milwaukee Brewer in 2024 when he was striking out 11 hitters per nine innings. That might have been enough to convince Stearns that the pitching lab could save him.

That last statement might be the biggest misstep that Stearns has had in his brief tenure: his hubris about the vaunted pitching lab. Now, don't get me wrong: in no way, shape, or form am I advocating for the dismantling of the lab. Never do I ever want the Mets organization to go back to the days where they skimped on that kind of stuff. The Mets desperately needed to move into the 21st century when it came to analytics, biometrics, plyometrics ... any word with "metric" at the end needed to be upgraded.

But Stearns moves in the off season leading into 2025 seemed to indicate that he thinks that he could get anyone to pitch for the Mets and they would all see results because of the pitching lab. The moves in the rotation were lateral at best. Jose Quintana and Luis Severino were out, Montas and Griffin Canning were in. Canning was a revelation this season, going 7-3 with a 3.77 ERA, with a gem against the Dodgers in Los Angeles in June being his highlight. Canning was the poster child for what the pitching lab could do, but unfortunately Canning tore his Achilles to end his season. Would he have kept up his production? Or would he have sunk like the rest of them did? We'll never know.

The lab couldn't fix Montas. He went 3-2 with a 6.28 ERA in nine games. It was another Met season marred by injury, as he only got started in June and was gone by August. But in between, he was of no great use. His season made me wonder how much better off the team would have been just by resigning Quintana and Severino. Quintana went 11-7 with an ERA under 4 in 131 innings. And while Severino's numbers dipped in West Sacramento after leaving the Mets, at least part of that (the part that wasn't injuries) had to have been his misery in playing for the Athletics, which was well documented. Also well documented was his desire to return to the Mets, which would have meant less years than what he got from John Fisher to play in a minor league ballpark.

Would it have made a difference? Maybe cosmetically. Maybe in terms of the good graces of the fans, who were ready for any semblance of the OMG Era to return to Citi Field in 2025. Or maybe it would have been substantial enough for the Mets to make the playoffs. Once again, we'll never know.

So what does this all mean for 2026? The good news is that as bad as 2025 was, 2026 could potentially be a huge bounce back, if for no other reason than they will have Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong in the rotation for an entire season. Not to say this is going to evoke the days of Gooden, Darling, and Fernandez, but they can't be any less dependable than Manaea, Senga, and Peterson were this season. And of the six of those pitchers, there is potential for five pretty good starters. McLean looks like a keeper. Sproat didn't pitch scared in his time here. Tong has ultra plus stuff, and if he would do really well with some special instruction on pitch sequencing this spring. Peterson blew by his previous high in innings by more than 45, which had to have contributed to him hitting a wall so I'm hopeful that he can bounce back. And if Manaea and Senga could find the fountain of health this season, they could do enough to be solid pitchers, even if Manaea can't reach Chris Sale type numbers like he did in '24 or if Senga can't quite find his '23 form.

All that said, Stearns would do well to find somebody that can complement this staff, and not a lump of coal that the pitching lab has to make into a diamond. The money is there. Steve Cohen is ready to spend it. Starling Marte and half the bullpen is coming off the books. It doesn't have to be an ace, but find someone dependable, and healthy. Yes, I know ... it's easier said than done. And I get that Stearns has been averse to pouring money into the starting staff. Stearns could have easily given a gold mine to Corbin Burnes only to see his season end. That's the chance you take with starting pitchers in this era, and that's why it's great that the Mets have their own starters that they're developing. But if there's one rotation slot that you want to fill from the outside, don't make it somebody from the frozen foods section. You can visit the high end meat aisle.

(Shout out to Scott Boras for the food analogy.)

For the rest of the team? Stearns has some questions to answer, not the least of which is the logjam at third base. Brett Baty has stepped forward and shown why he should be the guy to man the position regularly, while Mark Vientos took a major step back and shown that he might just be who he is: an all or nothing guy who hits a lot of homers and chases a lot of sliders. Then you have Ronny Mauricio who might have more raw talent than all of them. But his mental mistakes down the stretch raises questions about whether he'll put it all together. It will be interesting to see how Stearns answers this question.

Of course you have the Pete Alonso/free agency issue, which is more of a question for the money guy Cohen than it is for Stearns, but when that domino falls, then Stearns can work around that. If Alonso does leave, does Stearns move Vientos to first base? Or does he get moved for a dependable starter? Don't forget that you also have Ryan Clifford waiting in the minors for an opportunity to come up and play first base if the decision is to trade Vientos. So whether Alonso stays or goes, trading Vientos to a situation where he can get more regular playing time while getting a good pitcher in return might be the play here.

Stearns then has to figure out if he still needs Jeff McNeil. I love the Squirrel. I've always said that he's the embodiment of who we all thought Daniel Murphy was and should have been. Heck, he won a batting title here. But the question is: can Luisangel Acuna be the versatile seat filler that McNeil has always been? If the answer is yes, then it may be time to explore other options for McNeil.

Then, Stearns has to take a look in the minors and decide if any of those guys have roles on the '26 team. Carson Benge put up great numbers in Brooklyn and Binghamton this season, but struggled in his brief time in Syracuse. Similarly, Jett Williams was very good in Binghamton and not so great in Syracuse. He'll have to decipher which numbers mean more. Williams is an exciting prospect because his potential says that he's a guy whose talents lend himself to getting on base and making contact, traits that are always needed with the big club. Also, he's a true athlete that can learn any position and play it well. As for Benge, well this is a guy who had enough raw power to hit a home run to right field against the wind in Coney Island, something that has historically been hard to do. So the raw tools are enough to make Met fans salivate.

If the answer is no on both to start the season, then Stearns will have to do a lot better filling the holes in center field than he did with Mullins and Siri. Moreover, find guys with high baseball IQs who aren't going to kill you with critical mistakes. The mental mistakes crushed this team down the stretch, and they were an extension of Stearns' moves. Twice during Game 1 of the Red Sox/Yankees wild card series, Nick Sogard used his speed to turn singles into doubles, and it was the difference in the Sox' victory. The Mets could use some guys on the fringes (not necessarily Sogard himself) who make plays like that instead of forgetting to cover bases or taking bad routes on fly balls. If they can hit better than Mullins? All the better.

As for the bullpen? Well, it really starts and ends with whether Edwin Diaz opts out or not and if so, whether they can restructure a deal to make him happy. Diaz bounced back to his 2022 self in '25 with an 1.63 ERA and a WHIP of 0.87. You can't put a price on having a bullpen anchor like that. Cohen will probably have to step in with the checkbook to lock him in. But as for the rest? That might be Stearns' greatest challenge: building a consistent bullpen that can lock down teams for the 162 and for the playoffs. Can Dedniel Nunez bounce back? Can Dylan Ross make a difference? Will A.J. Minter return and be the force that we know he can be? And can Stearns find eight consistent relievers to reduce the need to bring guys up and down from Syracuse and maybe not break the record of 47 pitchers used? Lessening the need to trade mid level prospects for guys who are going to come to Citi Field and bomb would be a big help as well.

Once the Alonso and Diaz situations are settled it'll be time for David Stearns to get to work and answer all the questions on this list, and the way he does it will provide the direction that the '26 season will go. The good news is that while the team was bad this past season, the organization is on the most solid footing it has been in years between the deep pocketed owner and the much improved farm system. If Alonso and Diaz return, Stearns will still have an excellent core to build around. He'll have enough to work with here, and he's good enough to make it work. But there's a long way to go.

He deserves a lot of credit for 2024, but 2025 is also on him, whether you choose to call it a collapse, or something else. 2026 will be a career defining season for him, and yes ... it's an arduous task. But he better get it right. Another bad team and another bad season will define not only his Mets career, but the Mets careers of a lot of others.