The 2026 Mets Prediction Series Begins: How Many Wins for the 2026 Mets? Let the Guessing Begin

We are now a little more than two weeks away from Opening Day, which means across Mets Nation the annual ritual has begun.

No, not spring cleaning.

Prediction season.

From now until the first pitch of the season at Citi Field, we’re going to spend a few minutes each day here at Kiner’s Korner doing something Mets fans love almost as much as debating, 50 years later, whether Yogi Berra should have started George Stone in Game 6 and Tom Seaver in Game 7 in the 1973 World Series.

Trying to predict the future of the New York Mets.

And since none of us actually owns a functioning crystal ball (mine was recalled in 1993 after predicting the Mets would win 110 games), we’re going to lean on the next best things

the oddsmakers in Las Vegas and the statistical supercomputers that churn out projections all winter long.

So what do the baseball fortune tellers think about the 2026 Mets?

Let’s start with the big one:

Total Wins.

The number crunchers over at FanGraphs currently project the Mets to win 88 games this season.

Meanwhile, the projection gurus at Baseball Prospectus — using their famous PECOTA system — land almost in the same spot with a forecast of 88.8 wins.

Which is reassuring, because if the Mets manage to win 0.8 of a game, it probably means they’re leading in the eighth inning when the simulation ends.

Out in Las Vegas, where people bet on everything from baseball to competitive hot dog eating, sportsbooks have set the consensus over/under for the Mets at 90.5 wins, with odds generally sitting at -110 on either side.

So if we average things out between the computers and the casinos, we land at a very reasonable number:

89 wins.

Which means today’s question for Mets fans is simple:

Ask your question

• 0%2026 New York Mets Under/Over 89 Wins
• 0%Over
• 0%Under

And that’s where you come in. Predicting the future of the New York Mets has always been part science, part hope, and part good old-fashioned Mets fan optimism. The computers at FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus may crunch the numbers, and the oddsmakers in Vegas may set the line, but Mets fans know better than anyone that a season rarely follows a script. So what do you think — will the Mets finish over or under 89 wins this year? Vote and than share your reasons in the comments below. And if you enjoy talking Mets baseball with fellow fans every day, be sure to join our ever-growing Kiner’s Korner Facebook group, where the debate continues long after the final out. Tomorrow we’ll fire up the crystal ball again and tackle another prediction as we count down the days to Opening Day at Citi Field