The 2026 Mets Prediction Series: Francisco Alvarez

We are now ten days away from Opening Day, which means across Mets Nation the annual ritual has begun.

No, not spring cleaning.

Prediction season.

From now until the first pitch of the season at Citi Field, we’re going to spend a few minutes each day here at Kiner’s Korner doing something Mets fans love almost as much as debating—50 years later—whether Yogi Berra should have started George Stone in Game 6 and Tom Seaver in Game 7 of the 1973 World Series.

Trying to predict the future of the New York Mets.

And since none of us actually owns a functioning crystal ball (mine was recalled in 1993 after predicting the Mets would win 110 games), we’re going to lean on the next best things:

the oddsmakers in Las Vegas and the statistical supercomputers that churn out projections all winter long.

So what do the baseball fortune tellers think about the 2026 Mets?

Let’s continue with Francisco Alvarez.

The projection systems see Francisco Alvarez taking another step forward offensively in 2026 while settling in as the everyday catcher for the New York Mets. The forecast from Baseball-Reference projects Alvarez for 373 plate appearances, 16 home runs, and 50 RBIs while slashing .246/.322/.440 for a .762 OPS.

Meanwhile, the models at FanGraphs are a bit more aggressive in terms of playing time and power, projecting 112 games and 446 plate appearances with 22 home runs, 63 RBIs, and a .238 batting average with a .318 on-base percentage and .448 slugging percentage.

In other words, the computers see Alvarez continuing to develop into one of the better power-hitting catchers in baseball, even if the batting average fluctuates a bit along the way. Projection systems tend to be cautious with young hitters especially catchers because the physical toll of the position can affect offensive production over the course of a long season. But the power is real, the approach continues to mature, and the models clearly believe the Mets’ young backstop will remain a significant contributor in the middle of the lineup.

It’s also worth remembering the larger context. We are now four years removed from what many called the “Baby Mets Movement,” when young players like Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, and Mark Vientos were expected to form the next homegrown core in Queens. At some point, every promising prospect stops being a prospect and becomes simply a major leaguer. For that group, 2026 feels like the season when the question shifts from potential to production—the year they’ll be judged not on what they might become, but on how much they’ve matured as players.

So here at Kiner’s Korner, we’ll split the difference and set our own over/under lines based on those forecasts. Combining the projections gives us a benchmark of 19.5 home runs, 56 RBIs, a .242 batting average, and a .765 OPS. Now the only question left is which way the crystal ball leans.

Francisco Alvarez Under/Over 19.5 Home Runs

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Francisco Alvarez Under/Over 56 RBI

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Francisco Alvarez Under/Over .242 Batting Average

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