The 2026 Mets Prediction Series: Freddy Peralta

We are now a little more than two weeks away from Opening Day, which means across Mets Nation the annual ritual has begun.

No, not spring cleaning.

Prediction season.

From now until the first pitch of the season at Citi Field, we’re going to spend a few minutes each day here at Kiner’s Korner doing something Mets fans love almost as much as debating, 50 years later, whether Yogi Berra should have started George Stone in Game 6 and Tom Seaver in Game 7 of the 1973 World Series.

Trying to predict the future of the New York Mets.

And since none of us actually owns a functioning crystal ball (mine was recalled in 1993 after predicting the Mets would win 110 games), we’re going to lean on the next best things:

The oddsmakers in Las Vegas and the statistical supercomputers that churn out projections all winter long.

So what do the baseball fortune tellers think about Freddy Peralta.

What the Numbers Say

Here’s what the projection wizards are predicting for Freddy this year:

Source Wins ERA

Baseball Reference 13 3.42

FanGraphs 11 3.83

Steamer 11 3.80

ZiPS 12 3.86

ATC 12 3.76

The Bat 11 3.71

OPPsy 11 3.74

Average it all out, and it looks like this :

Wins: 12

ERA: 3.77

Freddy isn’t a rookie learning the Big Apple. He comes with a résumé:

2025: 17-6 record, 2.70 ERA, Cy Young buzz included.

Career averages (8 seasons): 13 wins, 3.59 ERA per 162-game season.

All-Star nods: 2021 and 2025. Strikeout rates averaging 10–11 per 9 innings.

So here’s where you come in, Mets Nation:

Freddy Peralta Under/Over 12 Wins

• 0%Over
• 0%Under

Freddy Peralta Under/Over ERA 3.77

• Over
• Under

We’ve got the numbers, we’ve got the history, and we’ve got the crystal ball… now it’s your turn. Vote above and tell us why in the comments, argue about his rotation spot.

And if you really want to debate Freddy’s ERA, win totals, or whether he should start every game in July, our Kiner’s Korner Facebook group is the place to be — where the arguments are louder and the opinions are stronger than any ERA ever recorded.