The 2026 Mets Prediction Series: Nolan McLean

We are now one week away from Opening Day, which means across Mets Nation the annual ritual has begun.

No, not spring cleaning.

Prediction season.

From now until the first pitch of the season at Citi Field, we’re going to spend a few minutes each day here at Kiner’s Korner doing something Mets fans love almost as much as debating—50 years later—whether Yogi Berra should have started George Stone in Game 6 and Tom Seaver in Game 7 of the 1973 World Series.

Trying to predict the future of the New York Mets.

And since none of us actually owns a functioning crystal ball (mine was recalled in 1993 after predicting the Mets would win 110 games), we’re going to lean on the next best things:

the oddsmakers in Las Vegas and the statistical supercomputers that churn out projections all winter long.

So what do the baseball fortune tellers think about the 2026 Mets?

Let’s continue with Nolan McLean.

Nolan McLean enters the 2026 season with more hype, more horsepower, and very much on the verge of becoming something real at the big-league level.

McLean isn’t being asked to get his feet wet anymore he’s being asked to deliver. And if you’re looking for a reason to be intrigued, you don’t have to dig much deeper than what he did in his brief 2025 cameo: a 2.06 ERA over eight starts, a strikeout rate north of 10 per nine innings, and the kind of heavy, ground-ball-inducing arsenal that makes infielders very happy and opposing hitters quietly miserable.

Of course, the projection systems—those cautious, umbrella-carrying pessimists—aren’t quite ready to hand him the keys to the rotation just yet. Baseball-Reference paints a picture of efficiency in a somewhat limited role: 84 innings, a tidy 3.32 ERA, 88 strikeouts, and even a couple of saves sprinkled in, suggesting a hybrid role isn’t entirely off the table.

Meanwhile, FanGraphs takes the longer view, projecting McLean as a full-fledged starter logging around 145 innings with a 3.82 ERA and roughly league-average command to go with a still-solid strikeout profile.

In other words, the computers agree on the talent—but not the usage. And if you’ve followed Mets pitching decisions over the years, you already know that “usage” is where things tend to get… creative.

What stands out with McLean is the foundation. A sinker that generates ground balls (over 60% in his MLB sample), a slider that misses bats, and enough secondary offerings to keep hitters from sitting on any one pitch. It’s not just stuff—it’s a plan. And for a 24-year-old, that’s usually half the battle.

So where do we land at Kiner’s Korner, where optimism occasionally overrides logic but never without a good argument?

Blending the projections, the eye test, and a healthy respect for the Mets’ ability to both develop and occasionally overthink pitching, we set the over/under lines for McLean’s 2026 season at 9.5 wins, a 3.70 ERA, 135 innings, and 135 strikeouts. What do you think ?

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Nolan McLean Under/Over 135 Strikeouts

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Nolan McLean Under/Over 3.70 ERA

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The crystal ball, as always, is a little cloudy—but maybe a little less so here. If the command holds and the role stabilizes, McLean feels like one of those pitchers who quietly becomes indispensable.The kind of arm you look up in August and realize has been holding the whole thing together.

And given the Mets’ recent history on the mound, that might be the most valuable projection of all.