The 2026 Mets Prediction Series: Brett Baty

We are eight days away from Opening Day, which means across Mets Nation the annual ritual has begun.

No, not spring cleaning.

Prediction season.

From now until the first pitch of the season at Citi Field, we’re going to spend a few minutes each day here at Kiner’s Korner doing something Mets fans love almost as much as debating—50 years later—whether Yogi Berra should have started George Stone in Game 6 and Tom Seaver in Game 7 of the 1973 World Series.

Trying to predict the future of the New York Mets.

And since none of us actually owns a functioning crystal ball (mine was recalled in 1993 after predicting the Mets would win 110 games), we’re going to lean on the next best things:

the oddsmakers in Las Vegas and the statistical supercomputers that churn out projections all winter long.

So what do the baseball fortune tellers think about the 2026 Mets?

Let’s continue with Brett Baty.

The projection systems see Brett Baty settling into a regular role (they skip over at what position that will be though) for the New York Mets in 2026, with modest power and steady production across a full season of at-bats. The forecast from Baseball-Reference projects Baty for 433 plate appearances with 15 home runs, 47 RBIs, and a .243/.309/.399 slash line for a .708 OPS.

Meanwhile, the models at FanGraphs paint a similar picture. Their Depth Charts projection estimates roughly 100 games with a .249 batting average, 17 home runs, 52 RBIs, and 55 runs scored.

In other words, the computers believe Baty will provide solid offensive production with mid-teens power while holding down a regular spot in the lineup. The projections aren’t predicting a breakout superstar season, but they do see a capable everyday player with some pop and the ability to get on base enough to be a productive piece of the lineup.

Of course, the context matters here. As we mentioned with Francisco Alvarez, we are now four years removed from the “Baby Mets Movement.” Back then the expectation was that Alvarez, Baty, and Mark Vientos would grow into the next homegrown core in Queens. By 2026, the developmental stage is largely over. This season feels like the point where potential turns into accountability. For Baty in particular, the question is no longer whether he can hit major league pitching in spurts it’s whether he can do it consistently over a full season and at what position.

So here at Kiner’s Korner, we’ll split the difference and set our own over/under lines based on those forecasts. Combining the projections gives us a benchmark of 16.5 home runs, 50 RBIs, a .245 batting average, and a .720 OPS. We are adding one more question as well, maybe the most important one of all.. Where where Brett play the most ?

Now the only question left is which way the crystal ball leans.

Brett Baty Under/Over 16.5 Home Runs

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Brett Baty Under/Over 50 RBI

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Brett Baty Under/Over .245 Batting Average

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Brett Baty will play the most times at :

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